In 2020, Belarus held a presidential election that ended with Alexander Lukashenko, the long-standing authoritarian leader, declared as the winner with a staggering 80% of the votes. This result ignited allegations of electoral fraud, leading to widespread protests that lasted for months and were met with a violent crackdown, resulting in thousands of arrests.
To avoid a repeat of this tumultuous scenario, Lukashenko opted to shift the upcoming 2025 election date from the relatively warm month of August to the bitterly cold January, when the likelihood of substantial public protests is diminished. With many of his political adversaries either imprisoned or forced into exile, the 70-year-old Lukashenko now stands as the sole candidate on the ballot, poised to secure a seventh term in office as the leader whom many in post-Soviet Belarus have known throughout their lives.
Belarus, known as “Europe’s last dictatorship,” is located between Russia and Ukraine and shares borders with NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. This Slavic nation, having a population of around 9 million, was integrated into the Soviet Union until it dissolved in 1991. Lukashenko, a former director of a state farm, ascended to power in 1994, riding a wave of discontent following dramatic declines in living standards due to tumultuous economic reforms. His promises to eradicate corruption resonated with voters at the time.
During his presidency, Lukashenko has maintained a close alliance with Moscow and its president, Vladimir Putin, who has held power for over 25 years. He has consistently relied on financial aid and political backing from Russia, allowing Belarus to serve as a launch point for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He also agreed to accommodate some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons within Belarus.
Dubbed “Europe’s last dictator,” Lukashenko has harshly suppressed dissent and has extended his presidency through elections that have been widely criticized as neither free nor fair. An open supporter of Soviet-era ideologies, he has reinstated Soviet-style economic controls, discouraged the use of the Belarusian language in favor of Russian, and advocated for a return to a flag reminiscent of the Soviet past.
Lukashenko intermittently attempted to charm Western nations, proposing reductions in repression while negotiating concessions from the Kremlin. However, these attempts were quelled following the violent suppression of protests initiated after the extensively criticized 2020 election, which was viewed as fraudulent both domestically and internationally. The aftermath saw over 65,000 arrests and a blitz against independent media and NGOs, which resulted in significant Western sanctions.
Currently, prominent opposition figures are either detained or have sought refuge outside the country. Human rights advocates estimate that approximately 1,300 political prisoners remain in Belarus, including Ales Bialiatski, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient and head of the leading rights organization, Viasna.
In a strategic move, despite his current term lasting until the summer, Lukashenko advanced the election schedule, asserting that this would allow for better planning. Political analyst Valery Karbalevich suggests the real motive is to avoid large-scale protests associated with the harsh January weather.
In the lead-up to the election, Lukashenko issued pardons for 250 individuals classified as political prisoners; however, these gestures coincide with an increase in state repression designed to eliminate any lingering dissent. Reports indicate hundreds have been detained in actions targeting relatives and associates of political prisoners, as well as participants in online discussion groups across various cities.
Unlike the contentious 2020 elections which featured real challengers, Lukashenko’s current campaign faces only nominal opposition candidates, with many more excluded from the ballot by the Central Election Commission. Early voting commenced on Tuesday, culminating on Sunday. According to a representative from Viasna, many political adversaries of Lukashenko are currently imprisoned under detrimental conditions, with some facing health crises due to prolonged confinement.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an opposition leader living in exile after challenging Lukashenko in 2020, has labeled the upcoming election a sham and urged voters to reject all candidates. Her husband, activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski, remains imprisoned following his attempt to run in the last presidential race.
In a significant security development, Belarus and Russia formalized a treaty in December 2024 that provided security assurances to Belarus that included potential deployments of Russian nuclear weapons on its territory. This agreement followed Moscow’s redefined nuclear strategy, which newly introduced Belarus into the ambit of Russia’s nuclear umbrella amid escalating tensions with the West related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Lukashenko asserts that Belarus accommodates numerous Russian tactical nuclear weapons, crucial for extending Moscow’s operational reach against Ukraine and NATO nations in Europe.
As tensions continue, preparations are underway in Belarus for hosting advanced Russian military technology, including the Oreshnik hypersonic missile system set for deployment. Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated these missiles could be stationed in Belarus by the latter half of 2025, although they would remain under Russian command while allowing Belarus to designate targets.
