SEOUL, South Korea — On Friday, the military of South Korea expressed concerns that North Korea might be planning to dispatch more troops to Russia, particularly after reports indicated significant losses among North Korean soldiers involved in the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict.
According to a report from South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff released to the media, there are indications that North Korea is ramping up preparations for test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile designed to reach the United States.
With the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency, North Korean leaders might view this as an opportunity for renewed high-level negotiations with the United States. During Trump’s first term, he held three meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Many analysts believe that Kim may perceive advances in his country’s nuclear strategies and growing military collaboration with Russian President Vladimir Putin as offering him greater leverage compared to earlier negotiations in 2018-2019.
Reports suggest that North Korea has been supplying Russia with substantial artillery and conventional weapons. In October, approximately 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean troops were reportedly sent to Russia, as indicated by intelligence from the U.S., South Korea, and Ukraine. This has raised alarms in Seoul and Washington regarding the possibility of Russia conveying advanced armament technologies to North Korea, potentially enhancing its nuclear capabilities.
Despite their reputation for discipline and training, North Korean soldiers have faced difficulties on the largely unacquainted landscapes of the Russian-Ukraine battlefields, making them vulnerable to aerial drones and artillery fire. Last week, South Korea’s intelligence agency reported that approximately 300 North Korean troops had been killed, with around 2,700 others injured. Earlier claims from Ukrainian President Volodyr Zelenskyy suggested that the total casualties could be around 4,000, although U.S. assessments were lower, estimating around 1,200.
The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff noted that North Korea is likely accelerating its plans to deploy additional troops to Russia, though they did not disclose how this conclusion was reached.
The strengthening of military relations between North Korea and Russia could potentially empower Kim in his interactions with both the U.S. and South Korea. During a recent political conference, Kim asserted a commitment to intensifying his anti-U.S. stance. However, analysts suggest that Kim may be considering renewed discussions with Trump, contingent on the likelihood of favorable concessions from the former president.
The previous negotiations between Kim and Trump ultimately fell through when Trump dismissed Kim’s proposal to dismantle his main nuclear facility as a limited step towards denuclearization, in exchange for substantial sanctions relief. Since then, Kim has significantly increased missile testing activities aimed at expanding North Korea’s nuclear arsenal targeting the U.S. and South Korea.
In South Korea, there are rising concerns that Trump might shift focus away from achieving complete denuclearization of North Korea, prioritizing instead the limitation of its intercontinental missile capabilities that pose an immediate threat to the U.S., while allowing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities aimed at South Korea to remain unaddressed.
During a Fox News interview aired on Thursday, Trump referred to Kim as “a smart guy” and mentioned he would be open to reconnecting. On Monday, Trump described North Korea as “a nuclear power” while highlighting his relationship with Kim, sparking notable reactions in South Korea. Traditionally, the U.S., South Korea, and their allies have refrained from labeling North Korea as a nuclear state, concerned that it could imply recognition of its violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions.
Trump remarked during an Oval Office press event post-inauguration that his rapport with Kim was amicable, stating, “He liked me. I liked him. Now he is a nuclear power. But we got along. I think he’ll be happy to see I’m coming back.”
Jeon Ha Gyu, a spokesperson for the South Korean Defense Ministry, reiterated the importance of pursuing efforts towards North Korea’s denuclearization as a crucial step for achieving enduring peace, not just on the Korean Peninsula, but globally. South Korea’s Foreign Ministry emphasized the need for close coordination with a potential Trump administration to accomplish the goal of denuclearization in North Korea.
North Korea has not yet issued a response to Trump’s statements. A recent report from state media regarding a two-day parliament meeting in Pyongyang did not clarify whether Kim was present, nor did it address topics related to the U.S., South Korea, Russia, or other international affairs.
