JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself in a precarious position despite the seeming advantages his government has gained recently. Following a prolonged conflict with Hamas, regional enemies have suffered significant setbacks, and certain Israeli hostages are beginning to return home. Additionally, the political landscape in the U.S. is shifting with Donald Trump’s re-election, a development Netanyahu welcomes.
However, the Prime Minister faces mounting pressures at home. His coalition partners on the far-right have threatened to destabilize the government if he fails to recommence military action against Hamas once a six-week ceasefire ends. This predicament places Netanyahu in a difficult position, having to balance the demands of his hawkish allies and the expectations of a U.S. president who favors de-escalation in the region.
Since the brutal Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu’s approval ratings have taken a hit. The unprecedented scale of the assault raised serious questions about Israel’s intelligence and security capabilities, leading to national mourning as numerous hostages remained trapped in Gaza. Nevertheless, he has recently touted military accomplishments, claiming that Israeli forces have effectively decimated Hamas’s capabilities during the ongoing 15-month military campaign, which has also incurred substantial civilian casualties and devastation within Gaza.
Moreover, Israeli operations have reportedly weakened Hezbollah, a key adversary backed by Iran, through both airstrikes and ground offensives. In turn, reduced support from Tehran has significantly impacted President Bashar Assad in Syria, a traditional ally of both Hezbollah and Iran. With Trump’s return to power, there’s speculation that U.S. foreign policy could prioritize increased pressure on Iran and potentially facilitate normalization with Saudi Arabia, further shifting the regional balance in Israel’s favor.
Although many within Israel, including Netanyahu, view the nation as strategically fortified post-conflict, the toll of ongoing military operations weighs heavily. Netanyahu has emphasized the strength of unity amongst the Israeli people, stating, “We have made it clear to our enemies… no force can break us,” on the eve of the recent ceasefire.
Politically, Netanyahu’s survival is at stake despite battlefield successes. He pledged to achieve total victory against Hamas—aiming to dismantle the group’s military and governance structures while securing the release of all hostages. However, this ceasefire arrangement is not fully aligned with those goals, as Israel is set to repatriate only a fraction of the hostages. The initial hostage release demonstrated the tenuous nature of this victory, as armed Hamas members quickly reemerged following the ceasefire.
In a move that could destabilize Netanyahu’s coalition, Itamar Ben-Gvir of the far-right party expressed discontent with the terms of prisoner exchanges, leading to his party’s withdrawal from the coalition, leaving Netanyahu’s government with an increasingly narrow majority. Another hard-line politician, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has also warned that if military action does not resume post-truce, he would withdraw his support as well, pushing Netanyahu closer to political peril.
As the prospect of renewed conflict looms, Netanyahu remains committed to pursuing military action if negotiations for the next phase of the ceasefire falter. However, a significant public sentiment is anchored in the emotional reunions of families with released hostages, complicating any calls for a resumption of fighting in a society where sympathy for hostage families runs deep. Moreover, with a weary populace and military, the public appetite for continued warfare is visibly diminishing.
The dynamics in Gaza could also change post-ceasefire, as displaced residents may return, allowing Hamas a chance to regroup amidst civilian populations. Calls for investigations into alleged war crimes against Israel in international courts further complicate the possibility of resuming military assaults.
As time is of the essence for Netanyahu, he is cognizant that Trump could play an influential role in his political future. Notably, Trump previously encouraged negotiations for the ceasefire and has positioned his newly appointed Middle East envoy to help facilitate discussions. Initially, Trump’s speech as president hinted at a desire for peace, yet he later remarked on the situation as not being Israel’s direct conflict.
Given his previous controversial congratulation of Biden, Netanyahu is keen to secure Trump’s backing. His early and enthusiastic congratulations to Trump after the inauguration highlight an intent to strengthen ties, emphasizing a shared commitment to combating Hamas. However, differences in strategy may arise, with Trump’s envoy indicating a tactical emphasis on ensuring the ceasefire’s initial phase is effectively executed before moving to further negotiations.
