In recent developments, Israeli forces have retreated to the outskirts of Gaza following the commencement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The initial release of hostages has occurred, allowing many displaced Palestinians to begin returning to what remains of their homes in the aftermath of the conflict.
Should the agreement be upheld, it promises at least six weeks of peace in Gaza along with the release of dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, coupled with increased humanitarian aid flowing into the region.
However, uncertainty lingers over the ceasefire’s sustainability as further negotiations are set to begin soon. A key point of contention remains the governance of Gaza, with Israel insisting on the disbandment of Hamas. The potential for renewed military action against the militant group looms over the discussions, especially since numerous hostages are still held by Hamas.
As part of the first phase of the ceasefire, Israeli forces have established a 700-meter buffer zone along Gaza’s borders, which has enabled displaced individuals to start returning home despite significant damage to their properties owing to Israel’s military actions.
Palestinian return remains a sensitive issue in the negotiations, primarily due to Israel’s insistence on controlling Palestinian movement to prevent Hamas from rearming in northern Gaza. Historically, the Israeli military restricted access to northern Gaza, enforcing a division to ensure that Hamas could not regroup.
Starting Saturday, Israel will allow displaced Palestinians to return northward without security checks, although this will initially be restricted to foot traffic along the main coastal road. Additional routes for pedestrian access are expected to open without inspections in the following weeks.
A private contractor will conduct searches on vehicles returning to the north as part of efforts to prevent the transport of military supplies, though details on this process remain unclear.
Regarding hostage exchanges, the framework outlines that Hamas will free 33 hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners incarcerated by Israel. The initial exchange occurred recently, resulting in the release of three Israeli hostages alongside the liberation of 90 Palestinian inmates. By the end of the 42-day period, all surviving women, children, and elderly individuals held by Hamas should be released.
Currently, around 94 hostages, including civilians, soldiers, and foreigners, are still believed to be in captivity, with estimates suggesting that a portion of them may be deceased. Another exchange is scheduled for Saturday, proceeding with regular releases if the pact remains intact.
The agreement stipulates that the 33 hostages will encompass women, children, and elderly individuals, primarily civilians, with Hamas also obligated to release any living female soldiers during the first phase. As part of the exchange, Israel will return 30 Palestinian individuals for each civilian hostage freed, which will also include several prisoners serving life sentences. The terms further dictate that for each female soldier released, Israel will exchange 50 Palestinian detainees, including those serving lengthy sentences for serious offenses.
In addition, Israel plans to release 1,000 detainees taken from Gaza since the outbreak of hostilities, provided they are not connected to the attack by Hamas that ignited this conflict.
Looking towards the second phase, Israel has committed to reducing its military presence in the strategically important Philadelphi corridor, located along the Gaza-Egypt border. According to reports, a complete troop withdrawal from this area is expected by Day 50.
Furthermore, the Rafah Crossing into Egypt will be reinstated to enable the transfer of injured and ill Palestinians—contingent upon the release of all female hostages, including female soldiers.
Humanitarian efforts are intensifying, with aid convoys delivering hundreds of trucks filled with essentials such as food, medicine, and construction materials to address the urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these efforts may face hurdles due to Israel’s pre-existing restrictions on importing certain goods that could be misused by Hamas.
The outlines of Phase 2 suggest that all remaining hostages will be released in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a promise of “sustainable calm.” However, significant challenges remain, with Israel insisting on a complete dismantlement of Hamas, while the group demands a total military withdrawal before relinquishing hostages.
Discussions will also need to address Gaza’s future governance, with Hamas expressing potential willingness to vacate power but not entirely relinquishing its influence or weaponry. Meanwhile, Israel opposes the possibility of the Palestinian Authority overseeing Gaza.
If a third phase is achieved, the potential for resolving remaining hostages’ status could involve exchanges for a reconstruction plan for Gaza, although financial backing for such efforts is still uncertain.
