BRUSSELS — On Thursday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed concerns that a Russian triumph in Ukraine could significantly weaken the deterrent capability of the vast military alliance, potentially costing trillions to regain credibility. He emphasized the importance of maintaining the strength of NATO amidst ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe, where NATO has increased its military presence along its borders with Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine by deploying thousands of troops and equipment to prevent any escalation of conflict that might affect its 32 member states.
Rutte cautioned that if Ukraine were to suffer a defeat, restoring the deterrent posture of NATO would involve much greater financial investment than what is currently being considered for military spending and industrial production. “It will not be billions extra; it will be trillions extra,” he stated during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He reiterated the necessity for Western allies to continue their robust support for Ukraine, nearly three years since the onset of the full-scale invasion by Russia.
The Secretary-General insisted that the trajectory of the conflict must be altered, asserting that the West cannot permit the invasion of one nation by another in the 21st century as reminiscent of past imperialistic endeavors. “We are beyond those days,” he remarked.
Concerns have intensified in Europe regarding the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump might opt for a swift resolution to the conflict through negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin that may not favor Ukraine. Rutte expressed caution against hasty agreements, stating that a poor deal could lead to adverse geopolitical consequences, including Russia strengthening ties with countries like North Korea, Iran, and China.
Richard Grenell, Trump’s new special envoy, criticized NATO allies who advocate for ongoing military efforts while failing to meet defense spending commitments to NATO’s standards. He pointed out that many Americans find it “outrageous” that the Biden administration has avoided dialogues with Putin. NATO has collectively decided that each member should allocate at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to military expenditures, with the expectation that while 23 of the members will meet this benchmark this year, about a third will still fall short. Poland and Estonia currently lead in military spending relative to their GDP.
Grenell emphasized that American support for NATO should not be leveraged when existing member nations are not contributing their fair share. He highlighted the paramount role of credible military readiness in deterring conflict, asserting that any leaders discussing further military actions must also ensure adequate financial contributions toward defense.
He also contended that President Biden erred in not engaging in communication with Putin, who was indicted for war crimes in 2023 regarding alleged unlawful deportations of children from Ukraine to Russia. “You should be able to talk to people. Talking is a tactic,” he argued, noting that effective conflict resolution necessitates dialogue.
Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski welcomed Trump’s view that Russia should initiate peace talks; however, he warned that “this is not the Putin that President Trump knew in his first term.” On a recent occasion, Trump threatened to impose strict economic measures on Russia if an agreement to conclude the conflict is not reached, a warning that may not hold much weight given Russia’s current economic state, laden with sanctions from the U.S. and Europe.
Sikorski urged that Putin not be positioned as a significant figure on the global stage concerning Ukraine, reaffirming that the U.S. President represents the free world while Putin is an isolated international pariah accused of war crimes. “Putin has to earn the summit,” Sikorski insisted, suggesting that premature recognition could inflate Putin’s perceived importance and distort the realities surrounding the ongoing conflict.
