BEIJING — Recent developments indicate a potential thaw in China’s relationships with nations such as Japan and India that were previously aligned with the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden. As Donald Trump resumes his presidency, the implications for China’s diplomatic landscape could significantly shift.
Historically critical of Biden’s strategy to build alliances with countries sharing similar views for counterbalancing China’s influence, China’s leadership now sees a chance to enhance foreign relations. This situation arises especially after Biden’s efforts to reinvigorate the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. Currently, China’s diplomatic ties with these countries appear to be on an upward trajectory, as do its relations with Britain. The strength of Biden’s foreign policy legacy is now under scrutiny, particularly in light of Trump’s willingness to challenge established ties with traditional allies.
According to analysis from experts in international relations, Trump’s leadership could lead to a less collaborative approach where U.S. allies begin to engage more with China. Wu Xinbo from Fudan University expressed that diplomatic opportunities for China may arise if Trump focuses more on unilateralism rather than maintaining alliances.
Conversely, a spokesperson from the U.S. National Security Council asserted that Trump has a history of encouraging a competitive global stance against China. For instance, during his prior term, Trump supported the Free and Open Indo-Pacific approach spearheaded by Japan and was proactive in ensuring Chinese telecommunications companies faced exclusion from U.S. networks.
In a sign of continued focus on these strategic relationships, newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio promptly met with the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan shortly after stepping into his role. This meeting reflects a continued priority on engaging Quad nations to offset China’s growing footprint.
However, while China seeks to improve relations, significant hurdles remain. The rekindling of ties with Japan and the U.K. is still nascent, with underlying tensions still prevalent. India, having reached a resolution over last year’s border disputes, has expressed its dissatisfaction with China’s recent territorial changes. Nevertheless, the ambition behind improved diplomatic ties stems partly from the new leaderships in Australia, the U.K., and Japan—their nations all recognizing the potential benefits from engaging with China, known for its manufacturing efficiency and strategic resources.
Chinese President Xi Jinping recently communicated with European Council President Antonio Costa, suggesting that both sides could contribute to increased stability amid turbulent global conditions. Following a substantial gap, economic discussions between China and Britain resumed following a visit from the U.K. Treasury chief. This revival aligns with China’s aim to bolster its economy, particularly important as Trump’s return raises concerns about potential new tariffs.
In Washington, there exists a strong bipartisan agreement on the necessity for the U.S. to maintain an edge in its economic and technological rivalry with China. During confirmation hearings, Rubio characterized China as the most formidable adversary the U.S. has faced. Continuity in tariffs from the Biden era, particularly on Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels, suggests a persistent strategy to counter China’s influence.
Unlike Biden, Trump’s recent statements regarding potential territorial ambitions, such as the annexation of Greenland and suggestions for Canada to join the U.S., have disturbed allies. Analysts surmise leaders in Beijing might see these developments as openings to reconnect with advanced democracies after years of strained ties due to COVID-19.
Yet, not all relationships are flourishing for China. The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., remains firmly opposed to China’s assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea, with recent complaints about aggressive Chinese coast guard activities. Both Japanese and Philippine officials conveyed to Trump an urgent need for sustained U.S. involvement in the area.
A potential stabilizing trend is forming as both China and Japan look to foster a stable relationship amid uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies. Both countries have taken steps to engage diplomatically—such as a rare Japanese ministerial visit to Beijing and exchanges of military officials—indicating a desire to enhance ties despite the broader geopolitical tensions.
Britain, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, appears to be steering a new course, seeking to mend ties with China after previous antagonism. However, this shift does not necessarily align with the anticipated effects of Trump’s return. European leaders are cautious, and many prefer to maintain strong partnerships with the U.S. Although there are diverse opinions on balancing relations with China, most leaders express a desire for continued cooperation with Washington. The upcoming path that Trump chooses may dictate how these dynamics evolve globally, impacting the international diplomatic landscape moving forward.
