NAWA, Syria — In response to a sudden and unexpected offensive launched by insurgents in northwestern Syria late last year, officials from various nations that support either the rebel factions or the Syrian government convened in Qatar to discuss strategies. According to sources familiar with the discussions from December 7, representatives from Turkey, Russia, Iran, and several Arab nations reached a consensus that the advancing insurgents should halt their operations in Homs, the last significant city north of Damascus, and that negotiations involving Syrian President Bashar Assad concerning a potential political transition should be initiated.
However, insurgent groups from southern Syria had different intentions. They advanced towards the capital, reaching Damascus’ main square early in the morning. Shortly thereafter, fighters from the north, led by the Islamist organization Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), joined them. During this upheaval, Assad fled the city. HTS, which has become the most organized entity among these groups, has since positioned itself as a de facto authority in Syria by collaborating effectively with the southern factions during this rapid offensive.
Despite the advances made, there remains considerable skepticism among the southern groups concerning the interim administration’s ability to unify the various former rebel factions, each with distinct leaders and ideologies. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has called for the establishment of a cohesive national military and security forces. Meanwhile, the interim defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has initiated dialogues with armed groups, but some influential figures, including southern rebel leader Ahmad al-Awda, have declined to participate in these discussions.
The province of Daraa, viewed as the epicenter of the Syrian uprising that commenced in 2011, remains significant. In response to violent crackdowns by Assad’s security forces during initial protests, many residents felt compelled to take up arms, as articulated by local rebel leader Mahmoud al-Bardan. The rebel factions in the south, according to analyst Aron Lund, exhibited distinctive characteristics compared to those in the north, being less Islamist and more community-oriented, with different international support channels.
In 2018, various factions in Daraa reached a reconciliation agreement with the Assad government, facilitated by Russian mediation. As part of this deal, some fighters relocated to Idlib, a common refuge for those fleeing government control, while others opted to remain in Daraa, retaining their arms. “We only turned over the heavy weapons… the light weapons remained with us,” explained al-Bardan. When the HTS-led coalition initiated their surprise attack in Aleppo last year, these retained weapons were quickly put back into action as alliances formed between southern provinces and northern insurgent groups.
On December 7, Nassim Abu Ara, an official from the 8th Brigade of al-Awda, remarked that discussions had suggested an agreement to prevent anyone from entering Damascus so that Assad could potentially exit or a transitional phase could commence. However, he noted their forces entered the capital regardless, defying this unofficial accord. Al-Bardan corroborated this perspective, asserting that while northern factions might have felt bound by the agreement, southern fighters were determined to press on.
Ammar Kahf, the executive director of the Omran Center for Strategic Studies based in Istanbul, mentioned being informed of an agreement during the December meetings indicating that rebels would cease their Homs offensives and head to Geneva for negotiations aimed at transitional arrangements. Nevertheless, he pointed out that it remained uncertain whether any Syrian faction, including HTS, accepted such a deal. Following the meeting, a statement from the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq reiterated the necessity of halting military actions to prepare for a comprehensive political dialogue, although details were lacking.
In the initial moments after armed groups entered Damascus, chaos ensued. Observers noted that HTS-led forces sought to restore order upon their arrival, with sources indicating disputes over the seizure of abandoned military ammunition. Abu Ara admitted there was a degree of disorder but emphasized the excitement and relief of the fighters experiencing victory after a prolonged struggle.
A recent visit by journalists to the western region of Daraa revealed no notable presence of HTS fighters. At a former Syrian army site, a member of the Free Syrian Army stood guard, while others showcased tanks that had been left behind. “These belong to the future state and army,” declared one fighter, Issa Sabaq, indicating hopes for a newly formed governance structure.
The journey towards establishing that governance has been tumultuous. On New Year’s Eve, HTS security forces were denied entry into the Druze-majority city of Sweida after failing to provide prior notice. Ahmed Aba Zeid, a researcher familiar with southern insurgent groups, noted that various factions are cautiously gauging their positions before dissolving and turning over their arms.
In many areas, local armed factions continue to serve as the principal security providers. Earlier this month, Daraa’s new police chief, appointed by the HTS-led government, engaged with local officials in Nawa to discuss establishing a police force there. Hamid mentioned the positive collaboration with regional factions, emphasizing that the expansion of governmental authority necessitates time.
Looking forward, factions are pondering their ultimate roles in the new structure. Questions arise over whether there will be a robust military, a border security force, or a focus on counterterrorism. Optimism persists that a consensus can be established, allowing for peace and understanding. “We want to avoid confrontations because our nation has endured enough suffering,” stated Abu Ara, reflecting the sentiment of many who seek an end to the prolonged conflict in Syria.
