Jakob P. Larsen, the head of maritime security at BIMCO, an association for shipowners, remarked that the ceasefire is delicate. He noted that even minor violations of the ceasefire could lead to renewed hostilities, prompting the Houthis to extend their threats to a wider array of international shipping routes. This perspective was echoed in a speech on Monday by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the supreme leader of the Houthis, who asserted their readiness to act if the situation escalates again. Al-Houthi emphasized their willingness to intervene if Israel increases its military actions or imposes a blockade on Gaza, stating, “We are ready to return to escalation again alongside our brothers, the fighters in Palestine.”
The Houthis are expected to release a military statement regarding their strategy, although it had not been published by the evening on Monday. They conveyed through their Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center that they are lifting the sanctions on vessels that were previously in their crosshairs since November 2023. For Israeli-affiliated ships, the sanctions will be fully lifted once all conditions of the ceasefire are met. However, the center explicitly reserved the right to reinstate attacks against the U.S. and the UK, which have conducted airstrikes against the rebels in response to their maritime assaults. They stated, “In the event of any aggression, the sanctions will be reinstated against the aggressor state.”
Since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October 2023, which followed Hamas’s unexpected assault killing 1,200 Israelis and taking 250 hostages, the Houthis have targeted more than 100 merchant vessels using drones and missiles. Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza has resulted in over 46,000 Palestinian casualties according to local health sources, who do not differentiate between civilians and combatants, though they report that women and children comprise a significant portion of the deaths. The Iranian-aligned Houthis have reported seizing one vessel and sinking two others, leading to the deaths of four sailors. Meanwhile, numerous missiles and drones have been intercepted by coalitions led by the U.S. and Europe, which have been active in the Red Sea.
While the Houthis claim they are targeting Israeli, American, or British vessels to compel an end to Israel’s offensive against Hamas, many attacked ships have had little, if any, tangible connections to the conflict, including those heading to Iran. The frequency of Houthi attacks appears to have diminished in recent weeks, particularly concerning vessels at sea, possibly due to the U.S.’ airstrike campaign, which has reportedly hit Houthi targets over 260 times. However, the movement has persisted in launching drones and missiles aimed at Israel, which has asserted its intention to continue military responses against Houthi leadership.
The dynamic of the situation might change with the inauguration of a new U.S. president, Donald Trump, who may reinstate the Houthis as a designated foreign terrorist organization, a status revoked by President Joe Biden. Larsen remarked that the period of uncertainty surrounding Trump’s inauguration creates further ambiguity regarding U.S. actions towards the Houthis and any potential punitive measures on the horizon.
