DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — On Monday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels indicated they will restrict their military operations in the Red Sea area to vessels linked to Israel following a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. However, they cautioned that broader strikes could be reinstated if necessary. This announcement, first communicated via email to shipping representatives late Sunday, is unlikely to alleviate concerns for international businesses reliant on this vital route for cargo and energy transport between Asia and Europe. The Houthi attacks have significantly reduced shipping traffic through this corridor, adversely impacting Egypt’s revenues from the Suez Canal that connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean.
Jakob P. Larsen, the maritime security chief at BIMCO, the world’s largest association for shipowners, characterized the ceasefire as precarious. He noted that even slight deviations from the ceasefire could rekindle hostilities, potentially leading the Houthis to expand their threats to a wider scope of international shipping. This sentiment was echoed in a speech broadcasted on Monday by the Houthis’ leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. He stated their readiness to re-engage should Israel escalate its operations, commit acts against Palestinians in Gaza, or impose a blockade hindering humanitarian aid.
While the Houthis have temporarily lifted sanctions on various vessels, their Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center specified that restrictions on Israeli ships would remain until all aspects of the ceasefire are fully enacted. The statement, however, left the door open for renewed actions against the U.S. and U.K., citing airstrikes launched against them for their seaborne offensive. Should these nations initiate any form of aggression, the Houthis made it clear they would promptly restore sanctions.
The shipping industry is watching the situation with skepticism. Firm Ambrey pointed out that the forthcoming weeks would determine whether the Houthis would adhere to their announced intentions. Since the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, the Houthis have reportedly targeted over 100 merchant vessels with missile and drone attacks. These attacks came on the heels of a surprise Hamas assault on Israel, resulting in substantial casualties and a nationwide military response from Israel in Gaza, which has reportedly led to the death of over 46,000 Palestinians, including many civilians and children.
Iran-supported Houthi forces have taken one merchant ship and sunk two throughout this conflict, resulting in the deaths of four sailors. Many missiles and drones launched have either been intercepted by joint U.S. and European coalitions or failed to hit their intended targets, although both Western military fleets and other merchant ships were included among their targets. The Houthis claim their actions are aimed at vessels affiliated with Israel, the U.S., or the U.K., as leverage to halt Israel’s military campaigns against Hamas. Nonetheless, several of the attacked vessels had tenuous or nonexistent connections to the conflict, with some even heading for Iran.
In recent weeks, the intensity of attacks by the Houthis has notably decreased, especially on ships in transit. Analysts suggest this reduction may correlate with the sustained airstrike operations led by the U.S., which has reportedly conducted over 260 strikes in the region since initiation. Despite the decreased tempo, Houthi forces have not entirely halted their efforts, having continued to launch unmanned drones and missiles toward Israel. Israel has signaled its intent to continue targeting Houthi leadership while remaining vigilant.
An additional variable in the situation is the recent inauguration of President Donald Trump, who may reinstate a foreign terrorist organization designation on the Houthis previously rescinded under President Joe Biden. This action could reignite the conflict. “Uncertainty surrounding this situation has intensified with Trump’s inauguration,” Larsen remarked, stressing the unpredictability of future U.S. actions concerning the Houthis and the potential for punitive measures.
