This agreement represents a major breakthrough amid the ongoing war, yet the path to execution is intricate and precarious, necessitating collaboration among various Palestinian militant factions, the International Red Cross, the Israeli military, multiple international mediators, and an Israeli government that faces internal dissent from hardline ministers.
The announcement of this ceasefire has raised hope in Gaza, where an estimated 90% of the populace has been displaced due to relentless Israeli military tactics—including both ground offensives and air strikes—that have rendered large areas uninhabitable.
In Israel, families are yearning to reunite with relatives taken hostage during the cross-border assault by Hamas on October 7, 2023, which ignited the conflict. Israeli authorities maintain that 98 individuals are still held captive in Gaza, but information regarding their well-being remains scarce, leaving many families in uncertainty about their fates.
As for the specifics of Sunday’s ceasefire, it is slated to commence at 8:30 a.m. local time (0630 GMT).
Under the terms of the agreement, three female hostages are expected to be freed later in the afternoon, around 4 p.m. (1400 GMT). Concurrently, Israel plans to release approximately 95 Palestinian prisoners, primarily minors and women. Hamas was tasked with providing Israel the identity of the three hostages on Saturday, but by late Saturday night, those names had yet to be communicated. The unveiling of identities will occur only after the hostages’ safe return and their official acknowledgment.
In southern Israel, school operations will be delayed, commencing at 10 a.m., amid fears of potential rocket fire from Hamas right before the ceasefire starts.
Israeli forces in Gaza are expected to concentrate their deployments near the borders with Israel and Egypt, while maintaining a strategic position along the road that separates northern and southern Gaza, as illustrated in a recent military map. Meanwhile, an influx of humanitarian aid is anticipated as hundreds of trucks are poised to enter Gaza.
Looking ahead to the first week of the ceasefire, if the truce remains intact, the next round of exchanges is anticipated to occur on the seventh day, January 25.
In this exchange, Hamas is expected to free four living female hostages, with Israel reciprocating by releasing between 30 to 50 Palestinian detainees for each individual freed. Additionally, Israeli troops will begin withdrawing from the central corridor within Gaza, enabling displaced individuals from northern regions to start returning home.
Over the course of the first six weeks—which is the period designated for this ceasefire—Hamas is obliged to release 33 hostages in exchange for around 2,000 Palestinians detained by Israel.
The identities of those hostages remain largely undisclosed, but it is expected that women, children, the elderly, and individuals in poor health will make up the first group. Among the Palestinian detainees set for release are over 700 individuals from the Israel-occupied West Bank and Jerusalem considered linked to militant activities, along with nearly 1,200 Palestinians imprisoned from Gaza.
As the ceasefire unfolds, it is planned that three hostages will be released weekly in exchange for Palestinian detainees.
By the conclusion of the sixth week, all 33 hostages stipulated in the agreement are expected to have been released.
Looking beyond the initial phase, negotiations for a subsequent stage are anticipated to commence during the third week of the truce, aimed at bringing the conflict to a complete end.
However, specifics regarding this next phase remain vague, as mediators opted for ambiguity to encourage participation from both sides. The overarching concept includes the release of all remaining hostages—whether alive or deceased—in exchange for a total Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza region and the establishment of “sustainable calm.”
Israeli officials, however, assert that a full withdrawal will only be considered once Hamas’ military capabilities are neutralized, ensuring that the group can no longer exert control over Gaza. In contrast, Hamas insists it will not release the final Israeli hostages until Israel declares an end to hostilities and withdraws all forces.
In light of these complexities, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refrained from providing commitments to his coalition partners regarding the transition to this second phase, a move that leaves many families of hostages anxious about whether their loved ones will remain in Gaza. Netanyahu remarked that it is essential to maintain the capacity to resume military action if deemed necessary.
