President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his intention to mediate a peace agreement concerning Ukraine, yet as he gets ready to assume office, a resolution appears increasingly distant.
Both Moscow and Kyiv are pursuing advancements on the battlefield to enhance their negotiating power as they brace for any potential discussions aimed at ending the conflict that has raged for three years.
Over the past year, Russian forces have made incremental but persistent advances through Ukrainian defenses, aiming to secure total control of the four regions located in the east and south that Moscow unlawfully annexed at the outset of the war but has not fully dominated. Additionally, Russia has been conducting extensive missile and drone strikes aimed at crippling Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and other critical facilities.
In response, Ukraine has also undertaken offensives, attempting to solidify its intrusions into Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian missiles and drones have targeted Russian oil depots and other significant installations vital to Moscow’s military operations.
Both nations have adopted rigid stances that seemingly allow for little compromise in their negotiations.
Trump, who previously claimed he could resolve the conflict within 24 hours, recently adjusted that timeline, now suggesting that peace negotiations could be achieved in approximately six months. His choice for Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, has indicated that a deal might be possible in as little as 100 days.
The positions of Moscow and Kyiv are telling.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that Moscow is open to dialogue but insists that any peace agreement must respect the “realities on the ground,” which implies acknowledgment of Russia’s territorial acquisitions.
He has made it clear that Ukraine must abandon its NATO aspirations and completely withdraw its forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—the regions that Russia annexed in September 2022. These conditions have been firmly rejected by Ukraine and its Western allies. Additionally, Russia is demanding the lifting of sanctions imposed by the West, which have severely impacted Moscow’s economy by restricting access to global markets.
Although substantial military expenditures have contributed to a nearly 4% growth in the Russian economy last year, challenges such as a declining ruble and labor shortages have led to elevated inflation and economic instability. Recently, President Joe Biden intensified the strain on Russia by broadening sanctions targeting its key energy sector, which includes measures affecting its illicit shipping operations designed to bypass prior restrictions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially insisted on a “peace formula” that called for Russia’s complete withdrawal from all occupied lands. However, as Russia has continued to gain territory, he has softened his stance, no longer making the withdrawal a precondition for talks. Zelenskyy is advocating for robust security guarantees from the U.S. and other Western allies, which he considers essential for any future agreement.
He stresses the importance of creating a comprehensive agreement rather than a temporary cessation of hostilities that would merely allow Russia to regroup. Zelenskyy has also called for the deployment of Western troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine.
Putin, on the other hand, has also rejected the idea of a temporary ceasefire, arguing that it would provide Ukraine with a chance to replenish its resources while Russian forces are actively engaged in an offensive.
Kurt Volker, who served as a special representative for Ukraine during Trump’s first term, noted that the Russians perceive Trump’s approach as an opportunity to push for a resolution, desiring to capture as much ground as possible before negotiations.
Ukraine is grappling with significant manpower deficiencies and has struggled to recruit enough new soldiers to counter its losses and rising desertions.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, highlighted that stabilizing the front is crucial to buy time and force Russia to reconsider its strategies. He indicated that Ukraine’s recruitment rates have dropped sharply since summer, leading to dwindling troop levels, especially among infantry units stationed on the front lines.
Despite lacking the resources for a large-scale breakthrough, analysts like Sergei Poletaev observe that Russia has honed tactics involving gradual, small-scale advances across multiple fronts.
Moscow appears to be counting on the exhaustion of Ukrainian forces and the potential collapse of the Ukrainian state, according to Poletaev’s assessments.
In an effort to shift the dynamics, Ukraine initiated an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August, hoping to divert Moscow’s focus and improve its negotiating position. Russia, initially caught off-guard, promptly bolstered efforts to eliminate Ukrainian forces in the region. Reports from the U.S., Ukraine, and South Korea indicate that North Korea allegedly dispatched thousands of troops to support Russia in Kursk.
Regarding future peace discussions, Kellogg downplayed European concerns that Trump would lessen support for Ukraine, asserting that Trump’s priority is to protect Ukraine and its sovereignty, not to appease Russian interests.
Volker anticipates that Trump will urge Putin to cease hostilities, warning that significant pressure will increase on Moscow if it does not comply.
Should Putin refuse to stop the conflict, Trump may open wider avenues for Ukraine to access financial resources and military supplies while also escalating sanctions against Russian energy sectors.
Volker believes these measures would be aimed at compelling Putin to recognize the necessity of halting conflicts.
Some analysts caution, however, about the unlikelihood of Putin making concessions regarding his wartime objectives, especially while Russian forces maintain a superior position in Ukraine and the economy continues to endure in the wake of Western sanctions.
As Putin works to reinforce his territorial gains and secure Western assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO, he is also pushing for Kyiv to alter its cultural and educational policies to align more positively with Moscow’s interests.
Political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya argues that Putin’s campaign is tightly intertwined with these aims, making a retreat unlikely; instead, he may escalate his efforts.
The Kremlin’s request for the demilitarization of Ukraine suggests not only substantial reductions in its military forces but also demands Western guarantees that they will not rearm the country.
Putin is not expected to reverse his annexation of the four Ukrainian territories, which has already been embedded into Russia’s legal framework.
Moscow sees recognition of its new borders by Ukraine as pivotal in preventing potential military resurgence.
Given the starkly contrasting positions on both sides, many analysts in Moscow express skepticism about the likelihood of a successful peace deal. A failure in negotiations may even heighten tensions between Russia and the U.S., particularly if Trump opts to bolster military support for Ukraine.
There is a prevailing belief in the West that Putin might be compelled to agree to a ceasefire; however, reliable perspectives suggest the opposite—likely further escalation from the Russian side.