The ceasefire agreement and plan for hostage release concerning Gaza is anticipated to commence as soon as Sunday. However, this potential diplomatic achievement, which comes after more than a year of intense conflict between Israel and Hamas, is surrounded by uncertainties and poses numerous challenges.
The proposal, presented to the Israeli Cabinet on Friday after extensive negotiations facilitated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, is marked by diplomatic vagueness. Critical issues that have historically heightened tensions between the two adversaries remain unresolved, which leads to apprehensions that, if a subsequent agreement isn’t reached, hostilities may recommence within a short time frame.
Within the besieged region of Gaza, there is a surge in hope among Palestinians at the prospect of receiving additional humanitarian aid coupled with a break from continuous airstrikes. The last 15 months of the Israeli military operation have resulted in over 46,000 casualties, including civilians and militants.
In Israel, families of those taken captive by Hamas during the October 7 incursion—an attack that left approximately 1,200 people dead, primarily civilians, and saw around 250 others abducted—are eagerly preparing for their loved ones’ return.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE DAYS AHEAD?
Despite some last-minute disagreements between Israel and Hamas regarding final details earlier in the week, American and Qatari representatives have indicated that the initial phase of the agreement—spanning 42 days—is expected to commence on Sunday.
This phase will see the release of 33 hostages currently in Hamas’s custody. The hostages include women, children, men aged over 50, and individuals who are sick or injured. In exchange, hundreds of Palestinian detainees held in Israeli prisons are set to be released. Hamas has committed to surrendering three female hostages on the first day of this arrangement, with four more slated for release on the seventh day, followed by the release of the remaining 26 over the course of the subsequent five weeks.
Additionally, this stage mandates that 600 humanitarian aid trucks enter Gaza each day, a significant rise from the current limited flow of aid, as criticized by the United Nations for failing to meet the basic needs of the population.
In Gaza, there is an expectation for reduced fighting and for the Israeli military to retreat eastward, away from densely populated areas, allowing civilians to return to their damaged homes. Currently, around 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million inhabitants have been displaced.
According to a partial list released by the Israeli Justice Ministry, most of the Palestinian detainees slated for release are women and minors who have been incarcerated in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem for non-violent crimes.
Diplomatic discussions have outlined future phases of the agreement, aiming to leverage the immediate ceasefire to facilitate a long-term resolution to the conflict and commence the reconstruction of heavily damaged Gaza.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The subsequent phase of the agreement is intended to be established before the expiration of the first phase. To encourage both parties to endorse the ceasefire, mediators appear to have deliberately left this next stage somewhat unclear.
The general framework suggests that all other hostages in Gaza, whether alive or deceased, will be released in exchange for a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from the region and the establishment of a “sustainable calm.” Negotiations are expected to be complex due to the entrenched hostilities and conflicting objectives of the involved parties.
Israel has stated it will not consent to a full withdrawal until it is convinced that Hamas’s military and political capacities have been thoroughly dismantled, ensuring that it cannot retain its authority. On the other hand, despite suffering significant losses, Hamas continues to wield considerable control over Gaza and insists it will only agree to a resolution that conclusively ends the conflict. It has declined to release its remaining Israeli hostages—about 100 still in Gaza—until Israeli troops are completely removed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a bid to maintain the precarious support of his far-right coalition partners, has refrained from providing the public with firm assurances regarding a transition to Phase 2. This uncertainty has left many families worried that their remaining relatives in Gaza will not be returned.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s national security minister with right-wing views, announced recently that his ultranationalist party would exit the government in light of the ceasefire and would rejoin only if hostilities were to renew. Additionally, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has stipulated that any continued partnership in government is contingent upon Netanyahu’s commitment to keep military operations ongoing in Gaza even after facilitating the release of some hostages.
Many remain skeptical that the ceasefire will address the fundamental issues fueling the conflict. As noted by military affairs commentator Amos Harel in an Israeli publication, there are significant doubts about Hamas’s willingness to adhere to the terms of the second stage, and widespread suspicion exists regarding Netanyahu’s true intentions.
