Two wildfires currently raging in Los Angeles have devastated a greater urban area than any other blaze in California since the mid-1980s, according to an analysis conducted by experts.
The Eaton and Palisades fires, which ignited last week, have together scorched nearly 4 square miles of densely populated sections of Los Angeles, far surpassing the urban acreage consumed by the Woolsey Fire in 2018. This assessment is based on data from the Silvis Lab at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Several dynamics contribute to the increased likelihood of wildfires encroaching upon cities. The expansion of urban areas into wildlands is a significant factor, alongside the rising global temperatures linked to climate change, which exacerbate severe weather patterns, including prolonged droughts, particularly in the western United States.
If these extreme conditions become more regular, researcher Franz Schug believes it is plausible that more wildfires will threaten populated regions. Schug specializes in the interactions between wildlands and urban landscapes at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The destructive path carved by the Eaton and Palisades fires has resulted in the loss of at least 27 lives, destruction of over 12,000 buildings, and the issuance of evacuation orders for more than 80,000 residents. State agency CalFire has indicated that these fires may be among the most catastrophic in California’s history.
While the Woolsey Fire eventually became twice the area of the Eaton and Palisades blazes, it predominantly affected uninhabited lands rather than urban neighborhoods.
For context, the Silvis Lab and experts define urban areas as regions with a high density of housing, qualifying an area with at least three housing units per acre based on U.S. Census data. Historical fires of note include the 1871 Great Chicago Fire, which engulfed approximately 3.3 square miles of downtown, and the 1906 Great Fire in San Francisco, which consumed 4 square miles of the city.
Remarkably, the Eaton and Palisades fires represent the largest destruction of urban territory during the month of January in California’s recorded history. Alexandra Syphard, a senior research scientist at the Conservation Biology Institute, remarked that the fires’ timing and urban path may not have any historical equivalent.
Although the cause of these major wildfires has not yet been identified, harsh weather conditions have been noted. Heavy rainfall primed the landscape for excessive vegetation growth, followed by severe drought which turned that vegetation into potent fuel for fires. Scientists correlate such weather extremes with the influences of climate change.
Human activity also plays a significant role in wildfire occurrences. Between 1990 and 2020, approximately 1.4 million homes were constructed in areas where residential neighborhoods intersect with vegetation, marking a 40% increase as identified by the Silvis Lab.
Fires that start near populated areas are frequently instigated by human actions, but their proximity also allows for swifter extinguishing efforts. David Helmers, a data scientist and geographer at the Silvis Lab, pointed out that while humans ignite fires, they also respond to extinguish them.
However, the Eaton and Palisades fires were exacerbated by intense Santa Ana winds, which overwhelmed firefighting efforts. The 2017 Tubbs Fire similarly faced strong winds, igniting near a residential electrical system, and it devastated suburban regions of Santa Rosa, causing 22 fatalities and leading to the destruction of over 5,600 structures. The Coffey Park neighborhood’s ruins became a potent symbol of how rapidly a wildfire can engulf a populated area.
In a striking contrast, the Hanly Fire, which occurred 53 years earlier, swept through nearly the same areas, fueled by winds but resulted in no casualties and only 100 homes lost due to the relatively lower development at the time.
