TAIPEI, Taiwan — The Chinese government has reported a population decline for the third consecutive year, highlighting increasing demographic difficulties for the nation, which is struggling with an aging population and a declining workforce. As of the end of 2024, China’s population stood at approximately 1.408 billion, reflecting a decrease of 1.39 million compared to the previous year.
This population trend aligns with global patterns, particularly in East Asia, where countries like Japan and South Korea have also experienced significant drops in birth rates. Three years ago, China joined the ranks of Japan and much of Eastern Europe, marking a shift towards population reduction.
Several factors contribute to this trend; the soaring cost of living has led many young adults to delay or decide against marriage and parenthood, prioritizing education and career building instead. Despite longer life expectancies, these gains are insufficient to balance out the low birth rates.
Countries with limited immigration, like China, face unique challenges in addressing population decline. Historically one of the largest populations in the world, China has persisted through numerous adversities, including invasions and natural disasters. After World War II and the rise of the Communist Party in 1949, large families became the norm again, with the population doubling over thirty years, despite a backdrop of catastrophic events like the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
With the conclusion of the Cultural Revolution and the death of Mao Zedong, government officials grew concerned that the population growth could outpace the country’s food production capabilities. As a result, they enforced a stringent “one child policy.” While not legally mandated, couples were required to obtain permission for childbirth, and violating the policy could mean severe penalties, including forced abortions and hefty fines. Additionally, children born outside this policy often faced barriers to citizenship, resulting in significant hardships for families.
In rural areas, where a strong preference existed for male children, government scrutiny intensified. Women had to provide proof of menstruation, and propaganda emphasized having fewer but better-off children. Although the government aimed to curb the selective abortion of female babies, the legality and accessibility of abortions led some to engage in illicit practices to determine the sex of an unborn child, skewing the country’s sex ratio significantly. Current data suggests a ratio of approximately 104.34 boys for every 100 girls, though some independent sources indicate an even larger imbalance.
A more alarming issue for the Chinese government is the dropping birth rate, with 2023 marking the first population decrease in decades. Coinciding with this was China’s narrow loss to India in the race to be the world’s most populous nation. The combination of an aging populace, dwindling workforce, and limited consumer markets, alongside increased emigration, is putting immense strain on the nation’s systems.
While investments in the military and large-scale infrastructure projects continue, the social security framework is on shaky ground, with many citizens reluctant to contribute to an already underfunded pension system. Currently, about one-fifth of the population, or around 310.3 million people, is aged 60 or older. Projections indicate this figure may surpass 30% by 2035, which has raised discussions around potentially raising the retirement age, one of the lowest worldwide. Meanwhile, with fewer children being born, some vacant educational facilities are being repurposed as care homes for the elderly.
These developments lend weight to the notion that China, notwithstanding its position as the world’s second-largest economy, faces significant obstacles ahead and may “grow old before it grows rich.” Government initiatives to encourage larger families, including cash incentives for having up to three children and financial aid for housing, have yielded only temporary impacts.
In the midst of these demographic transformations, urban migration continues to surge, with an additional 10 million people relocating to cities, increasing the urbanization rate to 67%, reflecting an almost full percentage point rise from the previous year.
