TAIPEI, Taiwan — According to recent data released by the Chinese government, the nation’s population has experienced a decline for the third consecutive year, indicating growing demographic issues for the world’s second-largest population. As of the end of 2024, China’s population registered at 1.408 billion, reflecting a decrease of 1.39 million individuals compared to the previous year.
This trend, which the government highlighted, is not unique to China but aligns with patterns seen globally, particularly in East Asia. Countries such as Japan and South Korea have similarly witnessed dramatic drops in their birth rates. China, having joined the ranks of Japan and many Eastern European nations, faces its own challenges as its population starts to shrink.
Various factors contribute to this decline; primarily, the increasing cost of living has led many young individuals to postpone or entirely forgo marriage and childbearing in favor of pursuing education and careers. Although life expectancy is on the rise, it is insufficient to counterbalance the declining birthrate.
Countries like China, which maintain strict immigration policies, face heightened risks from these demographic trends. Historically, China has been among the largest populations in the world, enduring wars, floods, and other disasters, while its citizens traditionally thrived on agricultural products such as rice and wheat. After World War II and the establishment of Communism in 1949, families grew larger, and the population doubled within 30 years, despite significant fatalities during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
Following these tumultuous times, the Chinese leadership began to worry about overpopulation affecting food security. Consequently, the infamous “one-child policy” was initiated, although it was not formally legislated. Women were required to seek permission to conceive, with violators subjected to punitive measures like forced abortions, heavy fines, or the denial of identity certification for their children.
Particularly in rural areas where there was a strong preference for male children, the government intensified its focus on regulating childbirth. Women were even pressured to present proof of menstruation, supplemented by propaganda slogans promoting smaller families. Efforts to prevent sex-selective abortions were in place, yet illegal sonogram businesses thrived due to the availability of abortions.
This gender disparity has contributed to an imbalance in the sex ratio, with reports indicating approximately 104.34 men for every 100 women, although some independent estimates suggest the reality may be even more skewed. In addition to this, the troubling plummet in birth rates poses serious challenges, with China witnessing its population shrink for the first time in decades in 2022. This shift led to India surpassing China as the most populous country globally in 2023. The combination of an aging populace, a shrinking workforce, and diminished local consumer markets is putting additional stress on the economy.
While China’s military expenditures and infrastructure investments continue to surge, its social security system is under increasing strain, as more citizens choose not to contribute to the already underfunded pension framework. Currently, more than 22% of the population—approximately 310.3 million individuals—are aged 60 and above. Predictions suggest that by 2035, this statistic could rise above 30%, prompting discussions around increasing the official retirement age, which is one of the lowest in the world. Some schools and kindergartens are now being converted into facilities catered to the elderly, reflecting the changing demographics.
These developments lend credence to the saying that China may “grow old before it grows rich.” Government incentives, including cash rewards for families who have up to three children and support for housing costs, have proved to yield only short-term results. Meanwhile, China is rapidly urbanizing, with an additional 10 million residents relocating to cities, pushing the urbanization rate to 67%, an increase of nearly one percentage point from the prior year.