Palestinians residing in the Gaza Strip are expressing a desire to leave the dismal conditions of tent camps and return to their previous homes, contingent on a potential ceasefire agreement that could end the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, many of them may soon discover that their homes are beyond repair and that rebuilding is nearly impossible due to the extent of the devastation.
Israeli airstrikes and military operations have reduced entire neighborhoods across various cities to piles of rubble, with charred remnants of buildings and heaps of debris visible everywhere. Key infrastructure, including essential water and electricity services, has been severely damaged, and most hospitals are non-operational. The timeline for recovery, or confirmation that rebuilding will even take place, remains uncertain.
The ceasefire agreement aimed at a gradual cessation of hostilities and the release of hostages held by Hamas does not clarify who will govern Gaza post-conflict, nor does it indicate whether Israel and Egypt will lift their blockade enacted since Hamas took control in 2007. The United Nations warns that if the blockade persists, it could take up to 350 years for the area to be reconstructed.
The true extent of the disaster will only be accurately assessed post-conflict when officials have unhindered access for inspections. The northern region of Gaza, which has experienced the most destruction, remains largely cut off and has seen a significant drop in its population due to Israeli military actions initiated in early October.
Last month, using satellite data, the UN reported that approximately 69% of buildings in Gaza have either been damaged or completely destroyed, corresponding to over 245,000 residences. Further estimates from the World Bank suggested that the damage incurred in the first four months of fighting could total around $18.5 billion, an amount nearly equivalent to the collective economic output of both the West Bank and Gaza in 2022.
Israel attributes the extensive destruction to Hamas, which initiated the current cycle of violence with its attack on October 7, resulting in approximately 1,200 Israeli casualties, predominantly civilians, and around 250 abductions. In retaliation, Israeli military strikes have reportedly resulted in over 46,000 Palestinian deaths, a figure that includes a significant number of women and children according to the Gaza Health Ministry, although they do not specify how many of the deceased were combatants.
Israel claims to have eliminated over 17,000 combatants but has not substantiated its assertions with evidence. The military has presented images and video evidence suggesting that Hamas strategically constructed tunnels and missile launch sites within civilian areas and often operated from residential neighborhoods, educational institutions, and places of worship.
Before reconstruction can commence, the vast amounts of rubble need to be cleared, presenting a monumental challenge. The UN estimates that the conflict has left Gaza with over 50 million tons of debris—equivalent to roughly twelve times the bulk of the Great Pyramid of Giza. Even with over 100 trucks engaged in full-time debris removal efforts, it could take upwards of 15 years to clear the area, given the limited space in the densely populated coastal enclave that is home to approximately 2.3 million Palestinians.
The removal process is complicated further by the presence of unexploded munitions and hazardous materials, as well as human remains, with Gaza’s health authorities reporting that many victims of airstrikes remain entombed beneath the rubble.
Rebuilding Gaza will necessitate billions of dollars and approval for the import of construction materials and equipment, both of which are not guaranteed. The ceasefire document outlines a 3-5 year timeline for reconstruction, envisioned to kick off during the final phase once all remaining hostages have been freed and Israeli troops withdraw from the region.
However, reaching this stage depends on negotiations surrounding the second, more complex phase of the ceasefire agreement, which have yet to commence. Even the first phase is currently uncertain, with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office indicating that unresolved points of contention with Hamas could delay Israeli endorsement.
Reconstruction efforts will be further contingent upon the blockade, which critics decry as collective punishment. Israel maintains that the blockade is essential to prevent Hamas from reestablishing military capabilities, highlighting concerns that materials such as cement and pipes could be diverted for tunnel construction and weapons manufacturing.
Should Hamas lose power, Israel might be more willing to reconsider the blockade, but as of now, there are no established plans for a governing body to take over. The United States and much of the global community advocate for a reinvigorated Palestinian Authority to lead Gaza and the West Bank with support from neighboring Arab nations as part of a pathway toward statehood. However, this idea is a nonstarter for the Israeli administration, which opposes the formation of a Palestinian state and has dismissed the notion of involving the Western-backed authority in Gaza.
Due to the history of conflict and instability in the area, international investors may hesitate to commit resources to a territory marked by cycles of violence, further solidifying the possibility that the makeshift tent camps alongside Gaza’s coastline could become a permanent aspect of life for its residents.
