A report released following the 2020 census revealed a surprising increase in the population labeled as multiracial in the United States, with a reported rise of 276% since 2010. However, sociologists Paul Starr and Christina Pao from Princeton University claim that this substantial increase is largely due to adjustments in the categorization methods employed by the U.S. Census Bureau rather than genuine shifts in racial identification or actual growth. Their findings, published last month, highlight that the Census Bureau introduced write-in options for respondents to specify their family origins for the first time, influencing their classification.
The proportion of individuals identified with two or more races surged from 2.9% to 10.2% between 2010 and 2020, particularly among the Hispanic demographic. Conversely, the percentage of those categorized as solely white diminished from 72.4% to 61.6%. This shift has sparked concern among some conservative commentators who interpret it as a threat to white dominance.
According to the Princeton researchers, a surprising outcome of the census was that those who identified as Black or white but also indicated Latin American roots were recategorized as multiracial through an automated process, despite their previous single-race declaration. Similarly, individuals identifying solely as white who reported their origins from African countries were also reclassified as multiracial.
Starr emphasized that this abrupt rise in multiracial classifications, paired with a sharp decline in the white population count, has contributed to a misleading sense of urgency among white conservatives regarding demographic transformations. He criticized the reclassification approach, suggesting it misrepresents the true landscape of racial change in the country.
When the census figures were published in mid-2021, officials from the Census Bureau hailed the new methodology as a progressive step forward that could better reflect the complexities of racial and ethnic identification in contemporary America. They admitted, however, that some of the notable increases could indeed be attributed to their procedural updates.
A groundbreaking feature of the 2020 census was the inclusion of open-ended spaces for respondents to write down their origins—such as “German” or “Jamaican”—in the race section. The comprehensive nature of these responses assisted the Census Bureau in assigning individuals to appropriate racial and ethnic categories.
Census Bureau representatives stated that these advancements demonstrate a far richer tapestry of multiracial and diverse identities than previously recorded. The accurate enumeration of multiracial individuals is essential, impacting various sectors such as political district reshaping, civil rights advocacy, labor statistics, health data collection, and the allocation of federal resources. The spotlight on multiracial identity heightened during Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign, reflecting her Jamaican and Indian heritage.
Starr and Pao criticized the Census Bureau for conflating aspects of ancestry with racial identity, asserting that the use of “origins” as a categorization basis should be reconsidered. They argued that this issue received insufficient attention amid various distractions during the 2020 census, including the Trump administration’s failed citizenship question, a controversial data privacy measure, and the complications brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted the census timeline. The 2020 census resulted in undercounts of Black, Hispanic, and American Indian populations living on reservations.
There has been a persistent request from researchers since 2021 for the Census Bureau to analyze the 2020 data using methods from 2010 to facilitate a more straightforward comparison of demographic shifts. Historian Margo Anderson, who participated in a review panel on census quality, expressed frustration with the lack of response. “It’s 2025 and people have been asking since 2021, ‘What the hell did you do?’” she contended.
Historically, the Census Bureau has faced challenges in accurately categorizing multiracial individuals. As Susan Graham, an advocate for the representation of multiracial people in federal statistics, noted, respondents were only permitted to select one racial category until the 2000 census. She remarked on the possibility that the 2020 census resulted in a possibly fabricated multiracial surge, hinting at the complexities that arise each time the government revisits these classifications.
Further revisions to federal race and ethnicity categories are on the horizon, including a combined inquiry into racial and ethnic identity and the introduction of a Middle Eastern and North African category, which might also contribute to a reduction in the number of individuals identifying as white.
However, not all experts agree on the significance of these methodological adjustments made by the Census Bureau. William Frey, a demographer at The Brookings Institution, downplayed the impact, stating, “I don’t think it’s that big of a deal for most people using the data. I think that the Census Bureau is trying hard to get this right.”
