ANKARA, Turkey — In a landmark appeal, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has urged his followers to lay down arms, marking a potential turning point in the enduring conflict between the outlawed group and the Turkish state that spans four decades. Abdullah Ocalan’s call to disband the PKK aligns with ongoing peace efforts amid a region in flux.
The geopolitical landscape is undergoing notable shifts, with repercussions following the fall of President Bashar Assad in Syria, the diminishing influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Against this backdrop, the peace endeavor in Turkey took root in October under the leadership of Devlet Bahceli, a known ultranationalist typically resistant to acknowledging Kurdish identity or rights.
Since Assad’s abrupt ousting, hostilities have escalated with clashes between Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish entities in northern Syria, which Turkey views as PKK extensions. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control over northeastern Syria and are engaged in discussions with Syria’s nascent government. Unlike many former insurgent factions, the SDF has so far resisted disbanding or merging with Syria’s new military framework.
The PKK, over its nearly 40-year existence, has conducted an armed insurrection against Turkey since 1984, evolving from an initial aim of crafting a Kurdish state to seeking greater autonomy and rights within Turkish borders. The enduring conflict, crossing into Iraq and Syria, has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties. Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU, the PKK faces sustained international scrutiny.
Abdullah Ocalan, who birthed the PKK amidst Ankara’s political science circles in 1978, fled to Syria under duress from Turkey before his capture and sentencing in 1999. Despite a commuted life sentence following Turkey’s abolition of the death penalty, Ocalan remains a potent figure championing Kurdish self-determination. His influence, channelled through family and legal representatives, extends across Turkey and neighboring regions like Iraq and Syria.
This renewed peace push, introduced by Bahceli in October, floated the possibility of parole for Ocalan should the PKK renounce violence and disband. Such a proposal marks a significant departure for Bahceli, previously a staunch advocate of militarized responses against the PKK and its associated factions in Syria. While President Erdogan has yet to comment directly, his tacit endorsement aids in maintaining a delicate political balance.
A communication channeled via key figures in the pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) saw Ocalan urging the PKK’s top echelons to voluntarily disband. Details on reciprocal concessions for Kurdish factions remain elusive, leading to a spectrum of reactions. Some analysts celebrate the potential for resolution, whereas skeptics decry leniency towards Ocalan and the PKK.
Past attempts for peace have faltered, notably during Oslo-led negotiations in the early 2010s and a 2013-2015 dialogue between Turkish officials and Ocalan. Though some steps like Kurdish-language media emerged, these efforts collapsed amid renewed violence, including terrorist attacks in 2015. Subsequent years have seen Turkish authorities intensify their crackdown on pro-Kurdish movements, and allegations of PKK affiliations continue to result in widespread arrests.
The present peace initiative is informed by a need for security amid Middle Eastern turbulences, yet some attribute ulterior motives to Erdogan’s administration, eyeing Kurdish allegiance in support of constitutional changes extending his tenure past 2028. Bahceli’s vocal support for constitutional reform is key, as Erdogan and Bahceli maneuver for DEM’s backing to secure this ambitious political agenda.