BEIRUT — On Thursday, Lebanon’s parliament convened to elect Joseph Aoun as the new president, successfully ending a prolonged presidential void that had lasted over two years. This vote follows a fragile ceasefire that put an end to a 14-month confrontation between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah, coinciding with a period when Lebanese leaders are urgently seeking foreign support for recovery efforts.
Aoun, who is not related to former President Michel Aoun, emerged as the favored candidate backed by both the United States and Saudi Arabia, crucial supporters as Lebanon embarks on its reconstruction journey. This session marked the 13th attempt by the legislature to appoint a successor to Michel Aoun, whose term concluded in October 2022.
Prior to this election, Hezbollah had shown support for another contender, Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of a minor Christian faction with connections to former Syrian leader Bashar Assad. However, the day before the vote, Frangieh announced his withdrawal and endorsed Aoun, paving the way for the army chief’s election. Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, pointed out that Hezbollah’s waning influence following its conflict with Israel, along with international pressure for a resolution, played a pivotal role in today’s outcome.
In the first round of voting, Aoun garnered 71 out of the 128 votes but fell short of the two-thirds majority necessary for an outright win. There were 37 blank ballots and 14 votes for “sovereignty and the constitution.” In the second ballot, he succeeded with 99 votes. Mohammed Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary faction, suggested that their lawmakers abstained from voting for Aoun in the initial round but later supported him to demonstrate Hezbollah’s ongoing political significance. “We postponed our vote to send a message that we, as guardians of Lebanon’s sovereignty, are also guardians of national unity,” Raad commented after the election.
Aoun entered the parliament building in Beirut to the sounds of a marching band, where he took his oath of office. Celebratory fireworks were set off in various streets, with citizens in his hometown of Aichiye in Jezzine province rallying with Lebanese flags, sharing traditional sweets, and even slaughtering sheep in his honor.
During his address to parliament, Aoun vowed to implement judicial reforms, combat corruption, and ensure that the state retains exclusive rights to wield arms, a pointed reference to Hezbollah. Additionally, he promised to secure Lebanon’s borders, enhance security services, and engage in discussions about a strategic defense policy aimed at expunging Israeli presence from Lebanese territories in the south, where many villages continue to house Israeli troops. He further committed to rebuilding areas ravaged by the Israeli military in the southern regions, eastern Lebanon, and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Lebanon’s complex sectarian power-sharing framework often leads to political stalemates. The crisis-stricken nation has experienced numerous extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly two and a half years from May 2014 to October 2016, which only ended with the election of Michel Aoun.
Under this power-sharing arrangement, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian, the prime minister for a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speaker for a Shiite Muslim. However, the president uniquely possesses the authority to appoint or dismiss the prime minister and cabinet. The caretaker government that has overseen Lebanon for the past two years has limited powers as it lacks the endorsement of a sitting president.
Joseph Aoun is now the fifth military chief to take on the presidency, despite constitutional restrictions that prevent high-ranking officials, including army commanders, from becoming president during their service or within two years after their resignation. Ordinarily, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can achieve election through a two-thirds majority in the first round or a simple majority in subsequent rounds. Nevertheless, due to the constitutional complexities regarding his election, Aoun required a two-thirds majority in the second round to secure his position.
Having been appointed as army commander in March 2017, Aoun was expected to retire in January 2024 but had his term extended twice due to the conflict with Israel. He maintained a low profile, shunning media attention and never openly declaring his candidacy. Other potential candidates included Jihad Azour, a former finance minister currently serving at the IMF, and Elias al-Baysari, who was acting head of Lebanon’s General Security agency; however, Al-Baisary announced his withdrawal on Thursday.
The forthcoming government will face significant challenges: beyond implementing the ceasefire that concluded the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and acquiring funding for reconstruction. Lebanon is currently grappling with its sixth consecutive year of an economic crisis that has severely devalued the currency and devastated the savings of many citizens. The financially-strapped state electricity provider is only able to offer a few hours of electricity each day.
The leadership in Lebanon reached a preliminary accord with the IMF for a bailout package in 2022, but progress on the necessary reforms has been disappointing. Analysts suggest that Joseph Aoun’s support from Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and European nations significantly bolsters his ability to effectuate change. However, he will need to carefully maneuver the intricate dynamics of Lebanese politics, which includes managing relations with Hezbollah, recognized both as a militant entity and a political party with substantial backing.
While Aoun has not had overtly conflicting interactions with Hezbollah, he has also never completely aligned with them. His background in the military and relative inexperience in economic matters may lead him to heavily rely on his advisors.
