If Ohio State secures a victory over Texas in the College Football Playoff semifinals, it will mark a significant milestone, ensuring that the sport celebrates consecutive national champions from regions outside the Sun Belt for the first time in 30 years.
This scenario highlights one of the key objectives achieved by expanding the playoffs from four to 12 teams—broadening the field to include more institutions from across various climates, rather than solely those situated in warmer areas.
The first semifinal, taking place at the Orange Bowl on Thursday, features cold-weather teams Penn State, making its first appearance in the CFP, against Notre Dame. On Friday, Ohio State will confront Texas at the Cotton Bowl. The victorious teams will compete for the championship title on January 20 in Atlanta.
Last season, Michigan became the first non-Sun Belt school to earn the national championship since Ohio State in 2014. It’s been nearly three decades since two consecutive national titles were claimed by schools outside of the Sun Belt, last seen when Nebraska took home back-to-back championships in 1994 and 1995.
When excluding Oklahoma—whose geographical latitude places it on the fringes of the Sun Belt zone—one would need to go back to the mid-1960s to find two successive champions hailing from northern regions, specifically Michigan State and Notre Dame.
As for this upcoming playoff matchup, let’s examine the predictions and analyses for each game with insights based on data from BetMGM Sportsbook:
In the matchup between the No. 7 seed Notre Dame and No. 6 seed Penn State (with Penn State favored by 2.5 points), Penn State has shown impressive consistency, emerging victorious over SMU and Boise State. Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have contributed significantly, consistently gaining ground, while Drew Allar’s performance has been error-free. Tight end Tyler Warren remains a valuable asset for the team, posing challenges for opposing defenses.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions successfully contained Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and will need to prepare for a diverse rushing attack led by dual-threat QB Riley Leonard, coupled with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. However, there are concerns regarding Love’s effectiveness; after suffering a knee injury against Georgia, he has been practicing with a brace.
Notre Dame’s defense has proven to be formidable against Indiana and Georgia, ranking second nationally with 2.21 takeaways per game. On the other hand, Penn State has only committed one turnover across two CFP games, averaging a mere 0.93 turnovers per game.
The prediction here is for Penn State to edge out Notre Dame with a score of 24-21.
Moving to the No. 8 seed Ohio State (favored by 6) against No. 5 seed Texas, intriguing narratives abound. Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, who has faced Texas three times without a victory during his stint at Kansas State, will get another opportunity to face the Longhorns. Conversely, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers began his collegiate career at Ohio State. The game at Arlington, Texas—three hours away from Austin—could provide a home-field advantage for Texas.
The Buckeyes’ offense, spearheaded by Howard-to-Smith connections, has recently recorded its highest offensive outputs since September. In contrast, the Longhorns’ defense, which previously limited opponents to under 300 yards in each of their first 13 games, has conceded 412 and 510 yards in their initial two playoff encounters.
Ohio State has built substantial leads at halftime against Tennessee and Oregon, leading to decisive wins. Meanwhile, Texas had solid first-half advantages over Clemson and Arizona State but struggled to maintain control until the closing moments. Notably, Ohio State has showcased exceptional performance, outscoring adversaries 156-16 in the third quarter this season.
Given Ohio State’s strong form, Texas must avoid engaging in a high-scoring affair; establishing a solid running game will be essential against a defense that has allowed an average of four yards per carry over the prior three games.
The prediction for this contest is a win for Ohio State at 31-24.
In the CFP quarterfinals, predictions stand at 4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread.
For the season overall, the record exhibits 225-61 straight-up and 144-140 against the spread.
