CARACAS, Venezuela — The upcoming presidential term in Venezuela is set to commence on Friday with a swearing-in ceremony for President Nicolás Maduro, despite significant skepticism surrounding the legitimacy of the election results from last year’s vote.
Maduro is likely to begin his third six-year term with demonstrations from his supporters, yet it remains uncertain whether anyone who backed his main opponent, Edmundo González, will join the protests. González, who contended he triumphed in the election held on July 28, sought refuge in Spain in September after an arrest warrant was issued against him by a Venezuelan judge.
Taking the oath will enable Maduro to reinforce a set of policies that have allowed his administration to alleviate the severe shortages and hyperinflation that plagued much of his 11-year rule. Although these measures have stabilized some aspects of the economy, they continue to deviate from the socialist commitments made by both Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, further eroding democracy in Venezuela.
González has indicated his intention to be present in Caracas on Friday, although he has not disclosed how he intends to travel or what his course of action will be upon his return.
### Concerns Regarding the Presidential Swearing-In
The concerns about the legitimacy of the presidential swearing-in stem from the government’s opaque handling of the electoral process. Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, comprised mainly of loyalists to the ruling party, announced Maduro’s victory just hours after voting concluded, but in contrast to previous elections, there were no detailed vote counts provided. The authorities claimed that a website breach prevented them from doing so.
However, the opposition managed to gather vote tallies from 80% of the voting machines across the country, posted them publicly, and claimed that these results indicated González won the election with double the votes received by Maduro. Due to global condemnation of the lack of transparency, Maduro sought an audit from the high court, which is also filled with his allies. The court confirmed Maduro’s victory without supplying substantial evidence but encouraged the electoral authority to release detailed vote counts, which were never disclosed.
The Carter Center, a U.S.-based organization invited by Maduro’s government to monitor the election, has acknowledged the veracity of the tally sheets shared by the opposition.
### Demonstrations Expected, but Who Will Lead?
The government is known for orchestrating demonstrations, particularly to exhibit its strength in numbers, such as the one scheduled for Friday. Maduro has urged citizens to take to the streets, but it is unclear how many individuals truly support him. The administration often pressurizes public sector workers and those reliant on state benefits to participate in such demonstrations.
It is uncertain if there will be protests against Maduro; the government’s crackdown post-election has had a deterrent effect. Should opposition supporters decide to mobilize, questions arise as to who would lead them. On Sunday, prominent opposition figure Maria Corina Machado called for demonstrations on the day before the swearing-in to rally against Maduro.
“Maduro won’t leave willingly; we must compel him to do so through the strength of a resolute populace,” Machado stated in a video on social media. Despite being in hiding for safety, she promised her supporters that she would be present during the protests.
Meanwhile, González remains outside Venezuela, and many opposition leaders who typically collaborated with him have faced imprisonment following the electoral results.
### Attendance and Reactions at the Ceremony
The swearing-in is expected to draw members of the National Assembly and close allies of Maduro, although details on the participation of foreign leaders are yet to be confirmed. The response from the government’s public information office regarding the attendance of international dignitaries has not been forthcoming.
Given the ongoing electoral crisis and the negative international outlook on Maduro’s governance, attendance from heads of state might be limited. Criticism has arisen from numerous countries, including Colombia and Brazil, whose leaders had previously maintained positive relations with him. Both nations have opted to send representatives instead of attending the ceremony themselves.
In contrast, Maduro’s last inauguration in 2019 saw attendance from foreign leaders including Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel and the former President of Bolivia, Evo Morales.
### Future Expectations for Maduro’s Term
Although inflation and food shortages that largely characterized Maduro’s previous time in office have eased, the long-term crisis facing the country remains unresolved. Venezuelans must navigate an extremely low minimum wage, rising food expenses, inconsistent fuel availability, and an inadequate public education system. Conversely, a select few connected to Maduro benefit from lucrative employment opportunities, allowing them to purchase imported goods that are unaffordable for the average citizen.
This disparity starkly contrasts the promises of equality that were central to the policies advanced by Chávez, often referred to as socialism for the 21st century. The prevalent inequality is poised to widen, as the government grapples with an oil-dependent economy suffering from mismanagement, corruption, restricted access to credit, diminished crude production, and a lack of private investment.
In recent months leading up to the election, many voters expressed that they or members of their family would consider emigrating if Maduro retained power; over 7.7 million Venezuelans have already departed from the country under his administration, all in search of better living conditions.
