Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face the New England Patriots (3-13) this Sunday at 1 p.m. EST, broadcasted on CBS. According to BetMGM’s NFL betting lines, the Bills are favorites by 3 points. The Patriots have a historical edge in this rivalry, leading the series 78-51-1. This season, the Bills hold a strong record against the spread at 10-6, while the Patriots are at 6-9-1. In their last encounter on December 22, the Bills edged out the Patriots with a 24-21 victory at their home field in Orchard Park, New York.
In their most recent games, the Bills dominated the Jets with a score of 40-14, while the Patriots faced a heavy defeat at the hands of the Chargers, losing 40-7. The Bills rank 9th in overall offense, with their scoring offense sitting at an impressive 2nd place. Conversely, the Patriots struggle on offense, sitting at 30th overall, with their scoring offense alongside their passing game also ranking low at 30th. On the defensive side, the Bills rank 20th overall, while the Patriots are slightly better at 23rd. Notably, the Bills significantly lead in turnover differential with a +23, while the Patriots sit at -10.
One key player to watch for the Bills will be quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Coach Sean McDermott has indicated plans to rest several starters, with Josh Allen only expected to take the initial snap to extend his consecutive games starting streak to 115. This provides Trubisky with a prime opportunity to command the offense extensively this season. Furthermore, he’ll aim to connect for a touchdown pass with a player yet to score this season as Buffalo has set a franchise record with 13 players achieving at least one touchdown this year.
For the Patriots, rookie quarterback Drake Maye is an essential player this week. He has displayed notable skill by throwing a touchdown in eight straight games, which is a franchise record for rookie quarterbacks. With a completion rate of 66.8%, he is close to breaking records set by past rookie seasons in the NFL.
Injury updates show that the Bills will be without starting linebacker Terrel Bernard due to a quadriceps issue. Safety Damar Hamlin’s availability is contingent on being fully cleared after a rib injury, along with wide receiver Curtis Samuel also recovering from a rib problem. Defensive back Taylor Rapp is likely to rest due to a neck injury, while the Patriots may face some challenges as well. Maye is dealing with a hand injury, and cornerback Christian Gonzalez is still in the concussion protocol. Other notable injuries include wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Kayshon Boutte, who missed early practice sessions of the week, and safety Kyle Dugger’s ongoing ankle and quadriceps troubles.
In their last matchup, the Bills came back after initially trailing 14-0 against the Patriots and managed to net 24 consecutive points, which included a tremendous play by cornerback Taron Johnson. Buffalo has enjoyed success against New England, winning 8 out of their last 10 encounters since the departure of Tom Brady.
Statistically, the Bills have matched their highest number of wins in a season, achieving 13 victories, which is a record that has been set on four previous occasions. They have also recorded numerous single-season records for scoring and touchdowns. Interestingly, since 2018, the Bills have reached 40 points 13 times under Josh Allen, a stark improvement compared to the period from 1997 to 2017, where they accomplished this feat only 13 times overall. On the other hand, the lack of efficiency in the Patriots’ red zone is evident as they score touchdowns only 47.7% of the time when within the 20-yard line.
In terms of fantasy implications, rookie quarterback Joe Milton for the Patriots is expected to see substantial playing time in the final game. Although Maye is likely to start, Milton should receive a significant share of the snaps during the match.
As both teams prepare to face off, the outcome could shed light on the future directions for both franchises, particularly as the Bills aim to capitalize on their impressive season while the Patriots look to regroup and build for next year.
