Lions vs. 49ers Preview: Matchup Analysis
Detroit Lions (13-2) take on the San Francisco 49ers (6-9) at 8:15 p.m. EST on Monday, airing on ESPN/ABC. BetMGM has established the Lions as 3.5-point favorites in this matchup. The Lions hold a record of 10-5 against the spread, while the 49ers stand at 5-10. Historically, the 49ers have dominated the series, leading with a record of 40-28-1. Their latest encounter ended with the 49ers edging the Lions 34-31 during the NFC Championship game in Santa Clara, California, on January 28, 2024.
Last week, the Lions triumphed over the Chicago Bears with a thrilling score of 44-42, while the 49ers experienced a setback, losing 29-17 to the Miami Dolphins. Analyzing team performances this season, the Lions rank second overall in offense, with strong metrics in rushing (6th) and passing (2nd), coupled with the top scoring offense. Meanwhile, their defense ranks 18th overall, excelling in rushing defense (4th) but struggling with the passing game (27th), ranking 7th in scoring defense. The 49ers, on the other hand, have an eighth-ranked offense, performing well in passing (7th) but average in rushing (10th) while ranking 16th in scoring. Their defense is formidable, ranking 2nd overall and 3rd against the pass, though they give up 19th in scoring and have faced challenges in rushing defense (15th). In terms of turnovers, the Lions are at a positive differential of +9, while the 49ers sit at a -5.
A standout for the Lions is running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who recorded 154 total yards against the Bears, stepping up in the absence of David Montgomery due to a knee injury. Gibbs has consistently achieved at least 70 yards from scrimmage in each game this season, a feat not accomplished by any NFL player since David Johnson in 2016. For the 49ers, wide receiver Deebo Samuel enjoyed a resurgence last week with seven catches for 96 yards, marking his first touchdown since Week 6, along with 25 rushing yards, totaling a season-high 121 yards from scrimmage. Having previously struggled with consistency, Samuel’s performance will be vital as he aims to prove his worth for next season.
A critical battle to watch will be the Lions’ deep passing game against the 49ers’ secondary. Detroit has tied for the NFL lead with 57 passes of 20 yards or more, illustrating their heavy reliance on explosive plays. Conversely, San Francisco has been adept at limiting these big plays, allowing just 31, the lowest in the league.
In terms of injuries, the Lions expect guard Graham Glasgow to return after missing time due to a knee issue. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin may also make his comeback since sustaining a neck injury in early November. On the 49ers’ roster, running back Isaac Guerendo is anticipated to return after missing a game with a hamstring injury. However, San Francisco will face difficulties with their offensive line, missing their top two left tackles—Trent Williams (ankle) and Jaylon Moore (quadriceps). Additionally, the 49ers are without key left guards Aaron Banks (knee) and Ben Bartch (ankle), and linebacker Dre Greenlaw is also expected to be unavailable due to a calf injury.
Historically within this series, the Lions saw their 17-point lead vanish in last year’s NFC title game, resulting in a loss to the 49ers. San Francisco has dominated recent meetings, winning 12 of the last 13 dating back to 2015. The Lions haven’t secured a road victory against the 49ers since 1995, and quarterback Jared Goff has faced challenges against them, losing his last five games with a total of seven touchdowns and five interceptions.
As for overall team stats, a victory for the Lions would assure them the top seed in the NFC, contingent on a win against the Vikings in Week 18. Detroit has already broken its franchise record with 13 wins this season, outpacing last year’s team and the 1991 squad. Moreover, they are the only undefeated team on the road this season, having won seven away games, the most in franchise history. Goff has thrown for over 300 yards with a passer rating exceeding 100 on 30 occasions throughout his nine NFL seasons. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has achieved a milestone by recording at least 100 catches in three of his first four seasons, joining notable players like Brandon Marshall and Michael Thomas. San Francisco’s season took a hit, as the team has now been eliminated from playoff contention and is facing its first losing season since 2020.
For fantasy football enthusiasts, Isaac Guerendo’s return is noteworthy; his performance in the last two games before injury featured 203 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, hinting that he could bring a significant boost from the backfield.
