On Sunday, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan claimed that the airliner from Azerbaijan which crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, resulting in the death of 38 individuals, was unintentionally shot down by Russia. During an interview with state television, Aliyev stated that the aircraft was struck by ground-based fire from Russian territory and that electronic warfare made the plane uncontrollable. He voiced concerns that Russia had attempted to keep this incident under wraps for several days.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reached out to Aliyev on Saturday to express his apologies for what he termed a “tragic incident,” but did not ascertain any direct responsibility on behalf of Moscow. As allegations surfaced that Russian air defense systems might have mistakenly shot down the plane while intercepting a Ukrainian drone assault near Grozny—its intended destination—Putin’s apology seemed more a nod to the situation rather than an acknowledgment of culpability.
The crash involved an Embraer 190 operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, which was heading from Baku to Grozny when it was redirected. The aircraft went down close to Aktau, Kazakhstan, after flying several hundred kilometers over the Caspian Sea and reportedly crashed into the ground around 3 kilometers from the coastline. Footage posted online depicted the plane making a sharp descent prior to a catastrophic explosion upon impact. Thankfully, among the total 67 passengers, 29 survived and were taken to medical facilities for treatment.
Authorities from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia are conducting investigations into the crash. Initial speculations regarding the crash’s cause include potential bird strikes, adverse weather conditions, and possible explosions originating from oxygen canisters onboard. Embraer, the manufacturer of the aircraft, stated they are prepared to assist relevant agencies in the investigation. Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s aviation authority, remarked on Friday that while the aircraft was attempting to land in challenging fog, Ukrainian drone strikes were targeting the surrounding area, compelling air traffic to be halted. After unsuccessful landing attempts, the captain opted to redirect toward Aktau instead.
On the same day, officials from both the U.S. and Azerbaijan hinted at the possibility that the crash was a result of hostile fire. Rashan Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Digital Development and Transport, suggested that expert analysis and witness accounts indicated an “external impact” was responsible for the incident. Citing the ongoing investigation, White House national security spokesman John Kirby confirmed that preliminary assessments indicated the aircraft could have been struck down by Russian air defense systems.
Several aviation experts have suggested that the damage observed on the tail of the aircraft points towards the firing of Russian air defense systems in response to a Ukrainian drone threat. Mark Zee, from OPSGroup, indicated that evidence from the crash fragments suggests a 90-99% likelihood it was struck by a surface-to-air missile, while the UK-based Osprey Flight Solutions alerted clients that Russia’s military air defenses likely brought the airplane down. Reports indicated that the flight experienced significant GPS interference, a tactic employed by Russia against drone threats.
In a later statement, Aliyev reiterated that the plane was shot down by Russia, albeit unintentionally, and declared his dissatisfaction with the explanations provided by Russian officials, highlighting discrepancies in the narratives presented in the days following the crash. He laid out three demands for Russia: an official apology, admission of responsibility, and accountability for those responsible, as well as compensation for affected individuals.
Putin’s recent apology satisfied the first demand but stopped short of acknowledging any responsibility. On Sunday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Putin and Aliyev had engaged in further discussions, yet did not disclose any details from their conversation. The Kremlin’s official notification suggested air defense activities were occurring near Grozny during the plane’s multiple landing attempts, though it refrained from explicitly connecting these actions to the crash’s cause.
Observing a national day of mourning on Thursday, Azerbaijan lowered its flags to half-staff and halted traffic nationwide to honor the victims. Both countries’ leaderships have stated that a collaborative investigation involving experts from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan will take place, while the Kremlin has initiated its own criminal investigation. Aliyev also expressed a preference for an international commission to investigate the incident rather than the Russian-led Interstate Aviation Committee, given concerns regarding objectivity due to its predominately Russian composition.
