TOKYO — On Wednesday, a panel of experts commissioned by the government expressed significant support for Japan’s forthcoming energy strategy, which aims to enhance renewable energy to fulfill 50% of electricity requirements by 2040. This initiative is coupled with maximizing nuclear power usage, a critical component for addressing the escalating energy demands during the rising influence of AI, while also striving to meet decarbonization objectives.
The draft plan, put forth by the Ministry of Industry, is currently under final review by a panel comprised of 16 members who predominantly hold pro-nuclear viewpoints from various sectors, including business, academia, and civil organizations. The proposed strategy seeks to optimize the use of nuclear energy, effectively reversing the phaseout policy implemented following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, which resulted in significant displacement and a sustained anti-nuclear sentiment among the populace.
This proposal is anticipated to receive Cabinet approval by March and will supersede the existing energy policy, which has been in effect since 2021. The draft suggests that nuclear energy is projected to constitute 20% of Japan’s energy supply by 2040, an increase from just 8.5% the previous year. Concurrently, the plan aims to elevate the share of renewable energy to 40-50%, up from 22.9%, and reduce coal-fired power generation from nearly 70% last year to a total of 30-40%.
Under the current energy framework, the targets for 2030 include 20-22% for nuclear energy, 36-38% for renewables, and approximately 41% for fossil fuels. The urgency for low-carbon energy sources such as nuclear and renewables is amplified by the increasing power demands from AI-driven data centers and semiconductor manufacturing facilities located throughout the nation.
During the panel meeting, Industry Minister Yoji Muto emphasized the necessity for Japan to fortify its energy security by diversifying its energy sources. He highlighted, “How we can secure decarbonized energy is pivotal for Japan’s continued growth. It’s time we move past debating between renewable energy and nuclear power; we must maximize both.” Japan is aiming to achieve net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050, with an ambitious target of a 73% reduction by 2040 in comparison to 2013 levels.
The energy draft positions renewables as the primary energy source while promoting the development of next-generation energy technologies, including solar batteries and portable solar panels. However, it also acknowledges several potential risk scenarios, particularly the chance of lower-than-expected investments and insufficient cost reductions in renewable technologies. Critics argue that the proposal lacks a detailed feasibility assessment for 2040 or a strategic plan for the eventual reduction of fossil fuels.
Furthermore, the plan advocates for hastening the resumption of reactors that comply with post-Fukushima safety regulations and suggests constructing next-generation reactors in facilities where current reactors are retiring. To meet the outlined 20% nuclear target, all 33 operational reactors in Japan would need to return to service, yet only 14 have resumed operations following the disaster. Given the current pace of safety evaluations by regulatory bodies, experts convey skepticism about the attainability of this goal.
Despite facing criticism regarding its practicality, Japan remains committed to advancing its nuclear capabilities and addressing challenges associated with its spent fuel reprocessing program, aiming toward achieving a complete nuclear fuel cycle.
