TORONTO — Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith remarked on Thursday that gas prices in the United States could significantly rise if President-elect Donald Trump enforces a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada. In an interview, Smith pointed out that American refineries would be compelled to hike gas prices if tariffs are instated, given that Alberta supplies 4.3 million barrels of oil daily to the U.S.

“We account for roughly 25% of America’s energy needs,” Smith stated during the discussion. The U.S. typically consumes around 20 million barrels of oil per day, while its domestic production stands at about 13.2 million barrels.

Smith further explained, “They will likely have to increase the price of gasoline by 25%. Do Americans really want to pay an additional dollar per gallon for gas?” She also highlighted that, despite Trump’s pledge to maintain low fuel costs, such tariffs could have the opposite effect.

Trump has expressed concerns that the U.S. is effectively “subsidizing” Canada, threatening to impose tariffs on Canadian goods unless Canada addresses issues related to migrant and drug flows. Contrarily, the volume of such movements from Canada is significantly lower compared to those from Mexico.

Approximately 60% of U.S. crude oil imports originate from Canada, with Alberta holding an estimated trillion barrels of oil, of which around 200 billion can be extracted. Smith indicated that the U.S. is in a precarious situation regarding its oil supply.

“If America doesn’t source oil from Canada, the alternatives are limited. You might turn to places like Venezuela or Iran,” she stated. “I would respectfully argue that Canada is a more dependable friend and ally than any of those sources.”

Furthermore, Smith emphasized that Canadian oil is essential for many American refineries. She mentioned the need for more pipelines to facilitate this energy flow. The Keystone XL project, which faced significant opposition, was halted in 2021 after Canadian officials failed in their attempts to have President Joe Biden reinstate the project’s permit on his first day in office.

Smith expressed her hope for more pipeline projects to be approved during Trump’s administration, explaining that Alberta suffered a financial blow of a billion dollars due to the cancellation of Keystone XL, which the government had partially funded.

Highlighting Canada’s role in providing critical minerals essential for the U.S., Smith said that China’s recent export bans on certain minerals pose a challenge for America. “The U.S. has significant ambitions for expanding its AI data centers, and critical minerals will play a vital role,” she pointed out. “Canada possesses nearly all the resources the U.S. will require.”

With 34 critical minerals that the U.S. Department of Defense is keen on, Canada also ranks as the largest foreign supplier of materials like steel, aluminum, and uranium to the U.S. On a daily basis, goods worth nearly CAD 3.6 billion (approximately USD 2.7 billion) cross the border, making Canada the primary export destination for 36 U.S. states.

Responding to Trump’s recent social media claims about Canada’s trade surplus, Smith clarified that the U.S. experiences a deficit because Canada exports billions in raw materials such as oil, gas, and timber to U.S. factories. She emphasized that these materials are integral to generating substantial wealth for the U.S.

Around 60% of U.S. crude oil imports and 85% of electricity imports come from Canada. Canada’s ambassador in Washington, Kirsten Hillman, recently noted that the U.S. faced a $75 billion trade deficit with Canada last year, attributing part of this to high oil prices influencing energy exports.

Amid the political turmoil in Canada, Smith noted the pressures on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who faces calls for resignation from within his party. As his mandate nears its end next year, Trudeau is anticipated to reshuffle his Cabinet as the situation escalates.

Smith also urged for a federal election, arguing that Canada’s negotiating position with Trump would be stronger with a prime minister who holds a firm mandate. “We lack a leader with a solid four-year term,” she asserted. “A prime minister with that tenure would be more empowered to negotiate effectively.”