CAIRO — Israel and Hamas are reportedly nearing a potential ceasefire agreement that could conclude the ongoing 14-month conflict in Gaza and facilitate the return of numerous hostages held in the region.
However, both parties have been in similar positions in the past, only to see negotiations derail due to differing views. The current discussions also present significant challenges.
The proposed agreement would unfold in stages, beginning with a cessation of hostilities, followed by an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian detainees, and a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. Subsequent elements of the plan would cover the release of any remaining hostages, conclude the war, and open discussions regarding reconstruction efforts in the area, as per the insights provided by officials from Egypt, Hamas, and the United States.
While leaders from both sides have expressed a degree of optimism regarding the imminent prospect of a deal, there are critical issues that remain unresolved, particularly concerning the exchange of hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, as conveyed by individuals involved in the ongoing negotiations.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan mentioned in a recent television interview that discussions are currently centered on finalizing the names of hostages for the initial phase of release, correlating them with the Palestinians slated for release as part of the exchange. Additional details about the presence of Israeli forces during the ceasefire are also in deliberation.
One of the primary challenges involves the release of hostages. Following the October 7, 2023, assault on southern Israel, Hamas and affiliated groups took approximately 250 individuals hostage, transporting them to Gaza. A previous ceasefire in November 2023 resulted in the release of over 100 individuals, while others have been rescued or their remains recovered in the year following the incident.
Israeli authorities assert that around 100 hostages are still present in Gaza, estimating that at least one-third of these individuals perished either during the initial attack or while in captivity. Negotiations have reportedly stalled over which hostages will be prioritized in the initial wave of releases. Disputes about the quantity of hostages to be included have also emerged, as reported by Israeli media outlets.
The anticipated initial release is believed to consist largely of women, elderly individuals, and those with health issues. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing considerable pressure from the families of the hostages, who are advocating for a deal that would ensure all hostages are released simultaneously, expressing concerns that a partial release could lead to further tragedies among those still captive.
In conjunction with the hostages’ release, Israel is expected to release several hundred imprisoned Palestinians, including numerous individuals who were involved in violent attacks. While a previous swap in November liberated hundreds of prisoners, there are ongoing disagreements regarding the specific individuals and numbers involved in the proposed release. Hamas is particularly keen to see high-profile detainees included in this exchange.
Netanyahu’s government comprises hardliners who vehemently oppose extensive prisoner releases, with some members threatening to resign if substantial concessions are agreed upon. This response is partly rooted in the aftermath of a 2011 prisoner exchange that released a former Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, who orchestrated the October assaults and was subsequently killed by Israeli forces.
The war has devastated Gaza, leading to an estimated 90% of the population being displaced, particularly affecting the northern regions of the territory which have been nearly emptied of their pre-conflict residents.
As the negotiations progress, it is expected that Israel will begin withdrawing forces from populated Palestinian areas and permitting some return of displaced residents during the initial stages of the agreement. However, the specifics regarding the scale of troop reductions and the number of individuals allowed to return remain under discussion.
Israel is reportedly amenable to allowing some residents to return to Gaza City, the region’s largest urban area, but is against permitting relocations to further northern areas near the Israeli border due to active military operations targeting insurgent groups. Critics, however, argue that Israel’s intentions are more sinister, raising allegations of ethnic cleansing as it contemplates strategies to isolate and starve out any remaining militants in the region.
Netanyahu has emphasized the necessity for long-term control over certain areas along Gaza’s border with Egypt and maintaining the freedom for Israeli operations targeting militants moving forward. Hamas is demanding a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces as a condition for any ceasefire.
In a recent interview, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed hope that a finalized deal could be reached before President Joe Biden concludes his term on January 20. He emphasized the united efforts in securing the hostages’ safe return and establishing a ceasefire to deliver essential relief to Gaza’s beleaguered residents.