Game Preview: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

The New England Patriots (3-11) are set to face off against the Buffalo Bills (11-3) on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST, broadcasted on CBS. Current odds from BetMGM suggest the Bills as favorites by 14 points. Historically, the Patriots hold the series advantage with a record of 78 wins to 50 losses and one tie, while against the spread, they’ve recorded 5 wins, 8 losses, and one tie, compared to the Bills’ 9 wins and 5 losses.

In their last encounter, the Bills secured a 27-21 victory over the Patriots on December 31 at their home stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The previous week saw the Patriots suffering a defeat against the Arizona Cardinals with a score of 30-17, while the Bills triumphed over the Detroit Lions with a high-scoring match ending 48-42.

Examining the teams’ performances, the Patriots have struggled offensively, ranking 30th overall. They are 14th in rushing, but lag significantly in the passing game at 32nd and are 31st in scoring. Their defense sits tied for 21st overall, with 21st against the rush, 16th against the pass, and 23rd in scoring. In contrast, the Bills have found success on offense, ranking 7th overall, 9th in rushing, 7th in passing, and an impressive 2nd in scoring. However, their defense has faced challenges, sitting 23rd overall, with 14th against the rush and 25th against the air game, while ranking 12th in points allowed.

This matchup includes two key players to watch: Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, a rookie first-round pick who has displayed remarkable accuracy recently by completing 80 percent of his passes in the last two games. In the last game against Arizona, he connected on 19 of 23 throws, totaling 202 yards, bringing his season completion rate to 68.5%. As a benchmark, the highest completion rate by an NFL rookie quarterback belongs to Dak Prescott at 67.8%. On the opposing side, Bills quarterback Josh Allen will aim to continue his explosive play after totaling seven passing touchdowns, six rushing touchdowns, and even a receiving touchdown in a recent three-game stretch.

A significant battle to keep an eye on will be between the Bills’ pass rush and the Patriots’ offensive line. Buffalo has relied primarily on a four-man rush but ranks 25th in the NFL in sacks per passing play. Conversely, New England has found itself in a precarious position, ranking 28th in allowing sacks, with a staggering total of 13 in their last four games.

In terms of injuries, the Patriots may be missing key players such as safety Kyle Dugger (ankle, illness), running back JaMycal Hasty (ankle), and cornerback Marcus Jones (hip), all of whom did not participate in the week’s first practice. Buffalo might take precautions with linebacker Matt Milano, who has suffered a groin injury recently, while their secondary’s condition is uncertain, with cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) and safeties Damar Hamlin (rib) and Taylor Rapp (neck) limited during practice.

Historically, the Bills have been dominant in their last nine matchups against the Patriots, winning seven of them, which includes playoffs. This trend began after Tom Brady’s departure to Tampa Bay in 2019, a phase when New England had a commanding 34-4 record against Buffalo during Brady’s long tenure. Additionally, Buffalo has been particularly strong at home against the Patriots since 2020, holding a 4-1 record and delivering a stunning 49-17 victory in their 2021 wild-card playoff match.

As the teams prepare to face each other once again, this marks a new chapter for the Patriots following the offseason departure of their long-time coach Bill Belichick, with Jerod Mayo now leading the team. The Patriots have not finished a season with fewer than three wins since a dismal 2-14 record in 1992. Statistically, the Patriots currently sit 30th in the NFL, managing to score a touchdown on just 46.3% of their red zone opportunities. Tight end Hunter Henry leads the team in receptions this season, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson is approaching the franchise’s rushing yards milestone. The Bills, on the other hand, are enjoying one of their best seasons, scoring over 30 points in eight consecutive games, matching an NFL record.

For fantasy football enthusiasts, James Cook stands out as a player to keep an eye on, as he has been a key contributor to the Bills’ offense. His consistent scoring and notable yardage achievements make him a valuable asset in any league.