Denver Broncos (9-5) will face off against the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. EST, available for streaming on Amazon Prime Video.
According to BetMGM NFL odds, the Chargers are favored by 2.5 points. When it comes to the spread, the Broncos stand at 11-3, while the Chargers follow closely with 9-5. Historically, the Broncos have the upper hand in this rivalry, leading the series with a record of 72-56-1. The last encounter saw the Chargers triumph over the Broncos in a 23-16 finish in Denver on October 13.
Last week marked a significant victory for the Broncos as they claimed a 31-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while the Chargers suffered a heavy 40-17 loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Examining both teams’ offensive and defensive standings, the Broncos hold an overall offensive rank of 22nd, with their rushing game placed 20th and passing at 23rd, though they are tied for 10th in scoring. Defensively, the Broncos have a stronger presence, ranking 8th overall, 5th against the rush, and tied for 16th in pass defense, with the highest scoring defense in the league. The Chargers’ offense struggles more, sitting at 26th overall, and their scoring ranks 19th. Their defense is more balanced, showing a 15th overall rank, 19th against the run, and 10th against the pass, with a scoring defense also tied for first.
In terms of turnover differential, the Broncos are at plus-five, while the Chargers have an impressive plus-eleven.
A key player for the Broncos to watch is linebacker Nik Bonitto. He has made headlines by scoring defensive touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and has recorded 11.5 sacks so far this season, tying his previous year’s total of 20 quarterback hits.
For the Chargers, wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a player to monitor. After overcoming knee and shoulder injuries, he returned to contribute significantly with five receptions totaling 58 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers. The Chargers have struggled with a lack of impactful skill players, a situation compounded by the late-November knee injury of top running back J.K. Dobbins. McConkey’s return provides a vital target for the offense.
A critical matchup to focus on is between Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and the Broncos’ pass rush. With the Chargers scoring only 17 points in their last three games, Herbert may be pushed to take more risks to spark their offense. However, this could prove difficult against Denver’s fierce pass rush, which leads the league with 49 sacks. Striking a balance between protecting the football and making significant plays will be challenging, particularly with the threat posed by Bonitto and teammate Jonathon Cooper, who has recorded eight sacks this season.
On the injury front, Broncos cornerback Riley Moss is not expected to return for another week, but there is good news regarding star cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who has fully participated in practice following a sprained right ankle, indicating a return to form. Defensive end John Franklin-Myers (foot) was the only player absent from Tuesday’s practice, while defensive tackle D.J. Jones (finger), running back Jaleel McLaughlin (thigh), and Moss were limited participants. For the Chargers, Herbert (ankle) has been working through limited participation but is expected to suit up. Unfortunately, the short week might leave the Chargers without several key players, including tight end Will Dissly (shoulder), cornerback Cam Hart (concussion), and offensive lineman Zion Johnson (ankle).
In terms of series notes, the Chargers’ victory over the Broncos in Week 6 marked the end of a three-game losing streak within this rivalry. Denver has struggled at SoFi Stadium, winning only once in the last four matchups there. Additionally, four of the last five contests between these two teams have been closely contested, determined by single-digit margins.
Looking at some additional stats, the Broncos have secured their first winning record since 2016, and a victory on Thursday could also end an eight-year playoff drought, their last postseason appearance being a win in Super Bowl 50. This scenario marks the longest duration for a Super Bowl champion to return to playoff contention. Quarterback Bo Nix, despite having had a rough outing last week with three interceptions, managed to rally the Broncos for a win against the Colts after a slow start offensively, where they only scored seven points through their first nine possessions. The Broncos’ total points this season currently stand at 336, the highest they’ve achieved through 14 games in a decade. Notably, Bonitto has made history as the first Broncos defender since 1973 to score defensive touchdowns in consecutive games, and the first linebacker in the NFL to do so since 2012. Safety Brandon Jones elevated his performance with a career-high third interception, placing him among a select group of players with three or more interceptions paired with over 85 tackles this season. In contrast, the Chargers allowed a staggering 27 points in the second half against the Buccaneers, their highest in any half this season, and their offensive struggles were evident as well, with only 64 yards accumulated in the second half.
With respect to fantasy implications, outside of McConkey and kicker Cameron Dicker, finding other Chargers players worth considering for fantasy this week may prove difficult. Herbert has struggled, averaging only 193 passing yards over his last four games, and the run game has faced considerable challenges.