Inside the Numbers provides a weekly analysis of NFL statistics, trends, and streaks. Over the course of this season, the intrigue surrounding the race for the first overall draft pick appears to be more captivating than the battle for playoff spots as we approach the final three weeks.
A record number of teams have already secured playoff positions, reflecting a shift from the balanced nature of the league to a more divided state characterized by strong teams and struggling ones. With seven playoff spots clinched so far, this is the highest number recorded at this point in the season. As per Sportradar, the 50% of playoff spots filled marks the most at this stage since the league’s merger in 1970, with the previous high noted in 2022 when 42.9% of spots were clinched.
As it stands, the AFC playoff picture could be finalized by the conclusion of Sunday’s games: Baltimore and Denver can secure their spots with wins, while the Chargers also need to win but require losses from both Indianapolis and Miami. In the NFC, the playoff race remains tight. If Washington wins against Philadelphia on Sunday and Green Bay triumphs over New Orleans on Monday, five out of seven playoff positions will be filled.
The competition for the top draft pick is intense, with an unprecedented seven teams recording three or fewer wins thus far. Historical data shows that in three previous seasons with 16 games, six teams finished Week 15 with three or fewer wins, specifically in 2014, 2008, and 1991. As for the current contenders, Las Vegas and the New York Giants hold prime positions with records of 2-12, and should both teams finish the season without another victory, the primary draft pick could depend on their strength of schedule. Meanwhile, they are joined by Carolina, Jacksonville, New England, Cleveland, and Tennessee, all sitting at 3-11, making them also potential candidates for the No. 1 selection if the Giants and Raiders both secure wins.
The matchup between Detroit and Buffalo showcased quarterback Jared Goff achieving a dubious NFL milestone. He became the first player in league history to lose a game despite throwing for over 400 yards, hitting five touchdowns, and avoiding any interceptions during Detroit’s heartbreaking 48-42 defeat. Just weeks after Goff distinguished himself as the first quarterback in over a decade to win a game after throwing five interceptions, he faced the opposite outcome in this high-scoring contest. He joins a rare group of quarterbacks who have both achieved such feats within the same season, a feat only matched by Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and George Blanda in previous decades.
The Bills, on the other hand, experienced their own ups and downs, suffering a surprising loss to the Rams in Week 14 despite scoring 42 points and then narrowly winning against the Lions while allowing the same amount of points. They made history alongside the 1966 Giants for participating in consecutive games wherein both teams scored over 40 points.
As Week 15 marked the final round of games for teams rested after a bye, six teams returned to play on extra rest, ending with a 4-2 record for that week. Baltimore, Denver, Houston, and Washington came out on top, while Indianapolis and New England faced losses. However, the overall benefit of coming off a bye week seems to have diminished significantly, with teams holding a 15-17 win-loss record this season after a week of rest—a more telling statistic given that this occurrence has only happened twice in the last decade.
Among the week’s most chaotic matchups was a game between the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals, which generated a rare level of sloppy play. Tennessee committed six turnovers while the Bengals added four, marking the first game with ten total turnovers since 2007. Notably, it was a thorough display of chaos that resulted in numerous penalties, with Cincinnati receiving 14 and Tennessee 12, setting a new record for combined turnovers and penalties since the NFL’s merger in 1970.
Caleb Williams has entered the league amid high expectations, seen as the potential solution to Chicago’s continuous search for a franchise quarterback. However, his rookie campaign has not unfolded as hoped. After suffering his eighth consecutive loss against Minnesota, he matched Trevor Lawrence’s record for the second-longest losing streak for a rookie starting quarterback selected first overall since the 1967 common draft era. Williams is withstanding this unfortunate stretch without throwing a single interception, an impressive feat in itself, as he currently holds the record for the longest streak without a pick, surpassing other notable struggling quarterbacks from history.
With the Bears now officially out of playoff contention, Williams finds himself in challenging territory, contrasting sharply with other first-overall picks like Andrew Luck, who was able to make a playoff start in his rookie season. It remains to be seen how Williams will respond to this adversity as he continues his development in the league.
