Miami Dolphins (6-7) will face the Houston Texans (8-5) this Sunday at 1 p.m. EST, with the game televised on CBS. The betting odds from BetMGM favor the Texans by three points. Against the spread, the Dolphins are at 5-8, and the Texans hold a 5-6-2 record. Historically, the Texans have been dominant in this matchup, leading the series 8-3, and the last time these teams met, Miami secured a 30-15 victory on November 27, 2022.
In their most recent outings, the Dolphins triumphed over the Jets 32-26 in an overtime thriller, while the Texans, coming off a bye, previously defeated the Jaguars 23-20 on December 1. Analyzing team performance, the Dolphins currently rank 19th offensively, specializing in passing (14th) but are 24th in rushing, contributing to a 23rd place in scoring. Defensively, they rank 9th overall, with particular strengths in stopping the run (7th) and getting consistent pass defense (11th). Meanwhile, the Texans sit 18th offensively, showing balance with 17th in passing and 16th in rushing, achieving an 11th position in scoring. On defense, they are performing impressively, ranking 5th overall, with a solid pass defense (7th) and an adequate run defense (10th).
When it comes to standout players, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been exceptional since his return from a concussion in Week 8, boasting a leading NFL completion rate of 73.8% and throwing for over 300 yards in three successive games. He has made history by being the first player to attempt at least 40 passes while achieving multiple touchdowns and no interceptions over three consecutive games within a single season. For Houston, quarterback C.J. Stroud has been consistent, passing for 225 yards or more in each home game this season and holds a strong record of 11-4 in his home starts. He has accumulated 3,117 passing yards, with a tally of 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions so far this season.
A crucial matchup to watch will be between Houston running back Joe Mixon and Miami’s run defense. In his last outing, Mixon rushed for an impressive 101 yards, marking his seventh 100-yard game this season as he maintains a notable average of 88.7 rush yards per game. He will face a Miami defense that specializes in stopping the run, allowing just 105.6 yards per game.
Injury reports are a concern for both teams. For Miami, left tackle Terron Armstead is managing a knee issue that limited his involvement in the previous match, while linebacker Bradley Chubb and Cameron Goode may also debut this season based on practice progress. Other players such as receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, running back Raheem Mostert, and linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. were noted as limited participants in practice. Houston will likely miss safety Jalen Pitre for another game due to a shoulder injury, and defensive end Denico Autry was limited in practice this week due to a knee issue.
Historically, the Texans enjoyed a dominant run against the Dolphins, winning the first seven encounters before Miami managed a win in 2015. The Dolphins have recently captured two consecutive victories over Houston. They first squared off in the 2003 season opener, where Houston took the win with a close 21-20 margin on a field goal in the closing seconds.
As the season progresses, Miami has three of their final four games on the road. Kicker Jason Sanders is on the verge of a milestone, requiring 13 points to hit 800 for his career. He also needs one more field goal to surpass 176, reaching second place for most field goals made in franchise history. Tight end Jonnu Smith is closing in on a franchise record that requires just 100 receiving yards to achieve a single-season high for tight ends at 792. Tagovailoa continues to pursue history, as he aims for a completion rate of 70% or better to extend his streak to eight games, which would tie him with legends Joe Montana and Drew Brees for the longest in NFL history. The Dolphins faced a challenge last week, conceding a season-high 402 yards against the Jets, further scrutinized after Aaron Rodgers exploited their secondary for 319 passing yards.
On the Texans’ side, a victory this week could secure them the AFC South title for a second consecutive year, provided Indianapolis loses. They are among the league leaders, ranking second in both tackles for loss and sacks, which adds to their defensive strength. Wide receiver Nico Collins displayed skill with eight receptions for 119 yards in his last game, marking another significant performance at home. Tight end Dalton Schultz has also been an important part of the offense, consistently contributing with solid receptions in recent games.
Lastly, for fantasy enthusiasts, Collins stands out with a total of 456 receiving yards and four touchdowns across his four home games this season, proving to be a valuable asset.
