LAS VEGAS — If head coach Steve Sarkisian of Texas lifts the College Football Playoff trophy next month, it will spell disappointment for BetMGM Sportsbook. Likewise, it wouldn’t be a welcome sight if coaches from Boise State, Indiana, or Arizona State find themselves celebrating a championship in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The reason for this stark contrast is rooted in the betting patterns observed throughout the football season. Texas, ranked fifth and highly favored, shares co-favorite status at BetMGM with the undefeated number one seed, Oregon, both holding 7-2 odds. In comparison, schools like Boise State, Indiana, and Arizona State languish far behind at odds of 40-1 or worse. Following closely behind those two powerhouses are the defending champions from Georgia.
“People are eager to place bets on underdogs as it keeps the excitement alive,” remarked Seamus Magee, the trading manager at BetMGM. “They don’t want to miss out on the chance to have a ticket on a potential long-shot winner.”
This year’s expansion of the playoff format from four to 12 teams has significantly increased betting activity on college football and introduced more diverse wagering options for the postseason. Teams like SMU, Army, and UNLV, which typically aren’t at the forefront of national title conversations, still engaged in meaningful matches during the latter stage of the season.
“Currently, we are observing one of the highest betting volumes we’ve ever recorded for the national championship market,” Magee noted. “This uptick can be attributed to our presence in more states, but the overall betting behaviors indicate a much higher level of engagement than we’ve seen in previous years.”
In the first-round matchup between 11th-seeded SMU and sixth-seeded Penn State, the betting interest has been quite balanced, although substantial funding has flowed towards the Mustangs at DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook. Consequently, this has prompted a line adjustment at DraftKings, reducing the Nittany Lions’ favorability from 9 points to 8.5.
“History shows that whenever Penn State faces strong opponents, they often struggle,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sports operations at DraftKings, commented. “On the other hand, SMU has shown a solid performance on both offense and defense, demonstrating resilience and the ability to comeback in tough situations.”
Joey Feazel, who leads football trading for Caesars, observed that the early betting trends largely favored underdogs this season. “It’s typical to witness betting on underdogs late in the process, mostly from professional bettors,” Feazel explained.
The Broncos of Boise State, holding the third seed and securing a first-round bye, are anticipated to be regarded as underdogs in their upcoming matchup against either Penn State or SMU. Although they secured their playoff spot as the top-ranked Group of Five champions, Avello expressed skepticism regarding their ranking among the nation’s elite, suggesting that teams like BYU, Colorado, and Miami would likely surpass them in a head-to-head contest—despite not qualifying for the playoffs.
“There are numerous teams that didn’t make the playoffs but would still be seen as the favored side,” Avello concluded. Feazel added that the Broncos’ lack of a home advantage, given they won’t compete on their iconic blue turf, presents a clear disadvantage for them; their quarterfinal game will occur at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona.
With three out of four first-round matchups taking place in regions with colder climates this year, we can expect weather to influence the games more than in past seasons. For instance, even though Notre Dame will host Indiana, conditions in Columbus could significantly affect the matchup between Ohio State and Tennessee, as well as SMU’s visit to Penn State. BetMGM currently favors all four home teams by more than a touchdown.
Magee emphasized the importance of considering weather conditions: “The temperature could be a deciding factor in these games. It will be interesting to observe how Tennessee adapts to potentially frigid conditions in Columbus, as well as how SMU copes with the cold transition from Dallas to Happy Valley, which might be the coldest game many of those players will experience.”
In a noteworthy note, SMU found itself included in the playoff field, edging out Alabama, thanks to a slightly better record. The Mustangs finished with one less loss than the Crimson Tide, who did not qualify for the SEC championship. Should a meeting occur between the two on neutral ground, sportsbook operators expect Alabama to be favored by a margin of 5 to 10 points.
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