In what has turned out to be a groundbreaking offseason for Major League Baseball, Juan Soto has secured an extraordinary contract with the New York Mets worth $765 million over 15 years, making it the most lucrative deal in the history of the sport. This monumental agreement follows closely on the heels of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ historic $700 million, 10-year contract agreement with Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani, marking these two deals as arguably the most significant in professional sports.
The emerging trend suggests that contracts approaching the billion-dollar mark might be conceivable in the future. However, several elements may inhibit this from happening anytime soon. There are indicators that Soto’s and Ohtani’s massive contracts could be outliers in the realm of baseball. Both athletes possess exceptional skills, yet they also benefitted from unique situations that significantly enhanced their marketability and value.
Ohtani stands out as potentially the greatest two-way player in baseball history, excelling in both pitching and hitting. His global influence also sets him apart; his actions are closely monitored in Japan, where he attracts an additional 125 million potential fans eager to support him through merchandise purchases and viewership, ultimately benefiting the Dodgers financially.
Soto, on the other hand, is a four-time All-Star renowned for his exceptional on-base ability. He won a World Series with the Washington Nationals in 2019, but what truly sets him apart is that he entered free agency at a mere 26 years of age—an unusual achievement given the current MLB landscape. Under the existing rules, players must spend six years in the professional leagues before becoming eligible for free agency. Soto made his debut at just 19, placing him in a distinct category of athletes who begin their major league careers as teenagers, thus speeding up his timeline to free agency.
It is uncommon for players to break into the major leagues at such a young age, and even more rare for them to have star quality and the opportunity to test the free-agent market as soon as they can. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper serve as comparable cases; both reached free agency in 2019 with Machado inking an astounding $300 million deal with San Diego, and Harper following shortly with a $330 million agreement with Philadelphia.
Typically, players first make their major league appearances between the ages of 22 and 26, which means they usually become free agents in their late 20s or early 30s. Aaron Judge, another notable player, highlights this trend. Despite being a key figure in the sport, he wasn’t a free agent until age 30, after completing three college baseball seasons and having been drafted by the Yankees at 21. His eventual nine-year, $360 million deal with New York seems reasonable when considering the recent contracts of Soto and Ohtani.
Two significant factors are converging that could complicate future players’ chances of entering free agency in their mid-20s. Teams in recent years have increasingly opted for college players during the draft, favoring established talents. For instance, only ten high school players were selected among the top 30 picks in the 2024 draft.
Additionally, teams are more willing to secure young talent on long-term contracts very early in their careers, and often before they even make it to the majors. Since Soto, only two players have stepped onto an MLB field before turning 20: Elvis Luciano and Junior Caminero. Luciano has not returned since his brief appearance in 2019, while Caminero, currently 21, has played just 50 major league games.
Among players who did debut at 20, there have been significant contracts signed prior to free agency, such as Fernando Tatis Jr.’s $340 million, 14-year deal with San Diego in 2021. Others, including Jackson Chourio, Corbin Carroll, Bobby Witt Jr., and Julio Rodriguez, also secured substantial contracts early in their careers.
The potential exception lies with Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who will hit free agency at 26 next offseason. Although he hasn’t consistently performed at Soto’s level, a stellar season in 2025 could put him in a position to rival Soto’s contract.
More likely is that the next player to surpass Soto’s deal may not even be in professional baseball yet. Historical precedents, such as Alex Rodriguez’s groundbreaking $252 million deal in 2001 and Albert Pujols’ $240 million agreement in 2012, suggest that significant contract escalations take time.
Many athletes may find it hard to reject substantial financial offers in their early or mid-20s, even if it means sacrificing potential future earnings via free agency. Soto, however, made a decisive choice to explore the open market, famously turning down a $440 million, 15-year offer from the Nationals in 2022, believing he could secure an even better deal later.
This bold decision illustrates why Soto is considered unique in the realm of baseball, which also suggests that his recent agreement at $765 million could set a standard that remains for some time in the industry.
