As the conflict between Ukraine and Russia intensifies, the situation is increasingly tense with the imminent inauguration of Donald Trump. President Joe Biden is expediting military aid to Ukraine, allocating billions of dollars in support before there are uncertainties regarding American assistance under the upcoming administration.
Russia, Ukraine, and their respective allies are taking measures to position themselves favorably ahead of potential shifts in U.S. policy that might accompany Trump’s presidency, which is set to begin shortly. The president-elect has recently advocated for an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and made indications that U.S. military support for Ukraine might decrease.
On the ground, Ukrainian troops are aware of the impending change in leadership and the associated risk of losing vital support from the United States. A Ukrainian commander, who operates a strike-drone unit in the Kursk region with the 47th Brigade, emphasized their resolve, stating, “We will not retreat… as long as we have the means to fight, we will continue.” His identity has remained confidential for security reasons.
The commander, known as Hummer, conveyed a stark reality, indicating that while their resources last, they would continue to defend their positions, but expressed concern about the rapid repercussions if those resources were entirely depleted.
In the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration, Biden’s administration is pushing through substantial military support to reinforce Ukraine. Since Trump’s election win, over $2 billion in additional aid has already been announced, contributing to a total of $62 billion in military help since the conflict’s onset in February 2022.
Moreover, the Treasury Department has committed to disbursing $20 billion as part of a $50 billion international loan to Ukraine, funded through Russian assets that have been frozen. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described this funding as crucial for reinforcing Ukraine’s defenses. Additionally, the State Department has given the green light for a $266 million support package to maintain operations of F-16 fighter jets provided by the U.S. and its allies.
In a significant policy shift, Biden has lifted restrictions regarding Ukraine’s use of American longer-range missiles, permitting targeting deeper inside Russia, addressing a prior hesitance due to potential escalation concerns. Furthermore, Ukraine can now utilize antipersonnel mines, a controversial move as many countries have banned such weapons.
However, despite these adjustments, Biden and his advisors remain cautious, wary that the liberalization of long-range missile use may not sufficiently alter the overall course of the war. Administration officials express confidence that their efforts, alongside robust support from Europe, will equip Ukraine adequately to persist in its resistance.
Though this support is considered sufficient to maintain ongoing defense, many assert it may fall short of enabling a clear victory over Russian forces. Concerns linger over the calculated pace of support, with some commentators highlighting the need for a more assertive stance against Russia.
Recent developments outside the conflict zone have underscored the war’s growing impact on Russia’s military commitments. In Syria, rebel forces successfully seized control of the capital, ousting the government that has relied on Russian support for years, further exemplifying the strain on Russian resources.
Biden remarked that this event illustrates how American support for Ukraine is significantly affecting Russia’s military capabilities. In light of these developments, Trump has called for immediate cessation of hostilities, framing it as part of his pre-negotiation tactics, but critics are wary of what appears to be favorable terms for Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reiterated that maintaining military strength is essential for achieving a favorable diplomatic outcome in negotiations with Russia. He has emphasized that current military dynamics showcase Russia as increasingly reliant on lengthy territorial engagements while facing significant manpower challenges.
A Ukrainian commander reported a notable decrease in Russian artillery attacks, suggesting that U.S. and European armed support is making an impact. Nevertheless, Russia has been ramping up its offensives through alternative means over the past six months, employing new tactics to mount assaults amid diminishing resources.
Concerns persist within Ukrainian support circles that a hastily arranged ceasefire might advantage Russia, allowing the country to regroup and re-engage militarily after a brief respite. Analysts warn that with Putin continually willing to expend troops en masse, there’s an expectation that he may seek a path for retaining territories acquired during the conflict.
In response to the evolving battlefield landscape, Biden’s recent policy adjustments on U.S. military assistance may also aim to deter North Korea’s involvement, as Russia has sought additional soldiers for its operations in Ukraine from allied nations. Despite recruitment efforts and a shifting strategy, experts maintain that Russia’s strategic priorities have increasingly centered upon Ukraine.