TEL AVIV, Israel — The unsettling decline of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime poses both a potential risk and an opportunity for Israel, which is closely monitoring developments as unrest in Syria escalates. Israel fears that the instability could cross into its borders, while simultaneously seeing a chance to hinder Iran’s operations that facilitate weapon transport through Syria to Hezbollah, the militant group in Lebanon.
Recently, Israeli forces initiated a takeover of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syria that was established as part of a 1974 ceasefire agreement between the two nations. The Israeli military characterized this move as temporary, aimed at securing their border amid the chaos within Syria.
This incursion triggered backlash from critics who accuse Israel of breaching the ceasefire and taking advantage of the Syrian disorder for potential territorial gains. Notably, Israel maintains control over the Golan Heights, territory it captured from Syria in the 1967 conflict and later annexed, a decision that lacks widespread international recognition.
In the context of current developments, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that forces were moving into a 400-square-kilometer buffer zone between Syria and the Golan Heights, with a backdrop of Syrian military withdrawal. This area has been monitored by a United Nations force comprising around 1,100 personnel since the 1973 war.
During a visit to the Golan Heights, Netanyahu described the Israeli troop deployment as a necessary “temporary defensive position” as Syrian forces left their outskirts. However, UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric pointed out that peacekeepers had indicated the Israeli actions might violate the 1974 disengagement agreement, as military operations are not permitted in the separation area. The Security Council is slated to convene for special consultations at the request of Russia to address the situation regarding the buffer zone.
The rebel factions that succeeded in ousting Assad are now largely led by a former senior al-Qaida figure, who, despite past connections, advocates for representative governance and religious tolerance. On a recent evening, Netanyahu asserted that Assad’s decline is directly tied to significant Israeli military strikes on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian forces, announcing plans to control Mount Hermon’s summit, which stands as the tallest peak in the eastern Mediterranean.
Israeli forces began their operation in the buffer zone on a Saturday when armed assailants reportedly attacked UN forces near the Israeli border, leading Foreign Minister Gideon Saar to explain that the Israeli military’s actions were preemptive measures to avoid a repeat of the October 7 incident when Hamas launched a surprise assault on Israel.
Although there were no casualties in the assault on the UN base, attempts to breach and loot the area occurred. Following the incident, UNDOF troops were able to recover some of the stolen items, including weapons and ammunition.
The regional response to Israel’s actions has been predominantly negative. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry criticized Israel for what it saw as a maneuver to exploit the power vacuum in Syria and undermine international law, while Saudi Arabia also condemned Israel for hindering Syrian efforts to stabilize and restore territorial integrity.
This is not the first time Israel has ventured into the buffer zone recently. Observations of satellite imagery indicated that Israel had engaged in construction projects along the Syrian border as early as July, and had at times trespassed into the buffer zone during that work. Following these developments, UN forces warned of severe violations of the ceasefire agreement by Israel.
Israeli leaders insist that their control over the buffer zone is temporary and not indicative of plans to incursion into broader Syrian territory. A military official emphasized that the current mission is to ensure stability and maintain the presence of UN peacekeeping forces. Historical context reveals that UN peacekeepers had previously withdrawn in 2014 following assaults from al-Qaida-linked rebels.
Military analysts concur that Israel is reactively operating within Syria for tactical reasons rather than seeking territorial expansion, particularly with the diminishing Syrian army presenting a volatile situation along their border.
Israel’s primary objective remains focused on preventing the ongoing instability in Syria from influencing its border security. Defense Minister Katz discussed future plans involving the establishment of a “security zone” beyond the buffer zone to dismantle heavy artillery throughout Syria and mitigate arms smuggling facilitated by Iran into Lebanon.
Recent operations have included strikes on sites harboring chemical weapons and long-range missiles to keep these capabilities away from hostile entities. Observers anticipate that Israel will persist in targeting various sites across Syria to ensure regional security. Concurrently, Israel is also considering ways to engage with the Druze community in Syria, a minority group that has historical ties with the Druze population within Israel.
Israel aims to communicate with various Syrian rebel factions to forestall Iranian-backed groups from regaining territory. Notably, Israel previously extended humanitarian aid to southern Syria through “Operation Good Neighbor,” which concluded in 2018, a program that saw over 4,000 wounded Syrians receive medical assistance from Israel. These prior non-diplomatic engagements may prove vital in the current scenario.
