Opposition forces are rapidly advancing towards Syria’s capital in a situation that has caught the global community off guard. The Syrian military has retreated from significant urban centers in the west and south with minimal resistance. Residents of Damascus report an increased presence of security personnel in the streets, while state media has been compelled to refute claims that President Bashar Assad has fled the nation.
What does this mean for the opposition groups? Should they manage to enter Damascus after seizing control of two of the country’s largest cities, what implications would that have? This article examines the dramatic shifts in Assad’s fortunes and the government’s stability over the past week, as Syria’s long-standing civil war appears to reignite.
The objective of these opposition forces is clear: to dismantle the Assad regime. It marks the first instance since 2018 that these groups have approached the outskirts of the capital, following a protracted siege that ended in government regained control of the area.
At the forefront of this advancing wave is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most prominent insurgent faction in Syria, collaborating with a coalition of Turkish-backed militias known as the Syrian National Army. Both factions have established strongholds in the northwest, launching an unexpected offensive on November 27 that resulted in the capture of Aleppo, the largest city in the country, along with Hama, the fourth largest.
Although HTS has its roots in al-Qaida, which the U.S. and the United Nations classify as a terrorist organization, HTS has claimed to have severed ties with al-Qaida in recent years. Experts suggest that the group has made efforts to reshape its identity by emphasizing civilian governance in its territories alongside its military initiatives. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of HTS, stated in a CNN interview that the primary goal of their current offensive is to topple Assad’s administration.
Looking ahead, divisions may arise within the ranks of the opposing forces. The HTS and the Syrian National Army have experienced periods of both cooperation and rivalry, and their future goals may not align perfectly. Turkish-backed militias are also motivated by the need to establish a buffer zone along the Turkish border to deter Kurdish militants, who are seen as threats by Ankara. Though Turkey has historically supported efforts to unseat Assad, it has recently advocated for a reconciliation process, vehemently denying any involvement in the latest military actions.
The potential for discord between HTS and the Syrian National Army, should they succeed in removing Assad from power, presents a critical question for the future of the conflict.
In other regions, armed opposition forces are capitalizing on the turmoil. Southern areas such as Sweida and Daraa have experienced local successes as armed groups have moved to assert control. Sweida, where the Druze community resides, has a history of anti-government protests despite the regime’s apparent consolidation of power in the region.
Daraa is particularly significant as it was regarded as the birthplace of the uprising against Assad, which began in 2011. Though government forces reclaimed Daraa in 2018, holds by rebels persisted, leading to a delicate balance of peace under a Russian-mediated ceasefire.
In the eastern part of the country, the Syrian Democratic Forces, predominantly Kurdish and backed by the United States, continue to maintain control, often coming into conflict with other militant groups.
Currently, the Syrian government retains authority over only four of the 14 provincial capitals.
The next steps rely heavily on Assad’s decisions and the determination of his forces to resist. An insurgent commander posted on Telegram, declaring that opposition units are commencing the “final stage” of their offensive and are encircling Damascus.
Reports from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights indicate that Assad’s troops have retreated from significant areas in the southern provinces, redirecting forces to Homs. Should Homs fall to the opposition, a vital link between Damascus and the coastal regions—where Assad’s support is strongest—would be severed.
A resident of Damascus warned that the loss of control over Homs would represent a drastic point of no return for the Assad government, signaling a profound shift in the complex political and social landscape.
Assad’s position appears increasingly precarious, as his traditional allies Russia and Iran find themselves distracted by various other conflicts. Additionally, Hezbollah, a key ally, has been further strained by its ongoing military engagements with Israel.
In the face of the evolving situation, the U.N. special envoy for Syria has called for immediate discussions in Geneva to facilitate an “orderly political transition,” acknowledging that developments are unfolding rapidly. Concurrently, he has engaged foreign ministers from several influential nations, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran, during the Doha Summit.
In a response to the escalating developments, President-elect Donald Trump expressed his views on social media, stating that the beleaguered Assad should not be supported by the U.S., emphasizing that this conflict does not concern American interests.