BEIRUT — The Syrian military has announced a significant withdrawal from a substantial portion of southern Syria, resulting in increased control of two provincial capitals by opposition forces, according to a report from a military spokesperson and a monitoring group.

This strategic redeployment from the Daraa and Sweida provinces coincides with the arrival of substantial reinforcements aimed at bolstering defenses in the vital central city of Homs, which is under threat from advancing insurgent factions.

The recent gains by these insurgent groups represent a dramatic shift in influence for President Bashar Assad, who appears increasingly isolated, with previous allies facing their own conflicts elsewhere. Russia, Assad’s primary supporter, is preoccupied with its ongoing war in Ukraine, while Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia that once provided substantial manpower to Assad’s forces, has been weakened due to prolonged clashes with Israel. Additionally, Iranian-backed groups have suffered setbacks from consistent Israeli airstrikes across the region.

Rami Abdurrahman, the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, has reported that Iranian military advisors are beginning to leave Syrian territory, and fighters supported by Iran from Afghanistan and Pakistan have retreated towards central Syria.

A concerted offensive initiated on November 27 by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has begun shifting the power dynamic in key regions, leading to the capture of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, and Hama, the country’s fourth-largest city. HTS, which traces its roots back to al-Qaida, is designated as a terrorist organization by both the United States and the United Nations. In an exclusive interview, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani articulated the group’s objective to topple the Assad regime.

According to the Observatory, the Syrian military is consolidating its positions following the loss of ground in Southern provinces. Meanwhile, significant battles are preparing in Homs, where insurgents’ success could sever the crucial link between Damascus and the coastal regions where Assad’s support base is located.

The Syrian army has publicly stated that it is realigning its forces in the Sweida and Daraa regions after facing attacks attributed to “terrorists.” In their statement, they emphasized their commitment to establishing a strong defense to safeguard Damascus from advancements to the south.

Since the outbreak of conflict in March 2011, the Assad government has consistently referred to opposition fighters as terrorists.

In Qatar, diplomatic discussions involving the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkey were on the agenda, focusing on the continuing turmoil in Syria. Turkey is known for its backing of the rebels.

Qatar’s foreign minister criticized Assad for not utilizing the recent period of diminished fighting to resolve critical issues within the country, highlighting that he has not engaged effectively with his populace. He expressed concern about the rapid progress made by rebel forces, which pose a tangible threat to Syria’s territorial integrity, and warned that without a prompt political initiative, the ongoing war could devastate whatever remains of the country.

Following the loss of Daraa and Sweida early Saturday, Syrian government forces still maintain control over five provincial capitals: Damascus, Homs, Quneitra, as well as Latakia and Tartus on the Mediterranean coast.

Tartus is strategically significant, hosting the only Russian naval base outside of the former Soviet Union, while Latakia is the site of a major Russian air base.

In another development, U.S.-backed fighters from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces have made substantial territorial gains in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour, including the provincial capital of the same name. The loss of ground in Deir el-Zour is a setback for Iranian influence, as this area is critical for linking the Mediterranean with Iran—a vital supply route for Iran-supported groups like Hezbollah.

With the recent capture of important border crossings by the Syrian Democratic Forces and the opposition’s control over the Naseeb border crossing to Jordan, the Syrian government’s only remaining access to the outside world has become the Masnaa border crossing with Lebanon.