BEIRUT — A decade ago, Syrian President Bashar Assad found himself in a precarious position amid the civil war, struggling as his forces lost ground in Aleppo and faced increasing pressure in the capital, Damascus. During that period, he received significant support from Russia and Iran, along with the backing of Hezbollah, which allowed him to reclaim lost territories and shift the tide of war in his favor.
However, as new offensives by insurgents have rapidly captured Aleppo, Hama, and several towns in northwestern Syria, Assad now seems to be largely isolated. Russia’s attention is diverted by its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which had previously sent large numbers of fighters to assist Assad, is currently weakened due to its own conflicts with Israel. Meanwhile, Iran’s influence has also diminished, as Israeli airstrikes have targeted its proxies throughout the region.
The toll of over thirteen years of warfare and economic crises has left Syrian troops depleted and demoralized, raising questions about the sustainability of Assad’s rule. Analysts warn that the next few weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the current rebel offensive constitutes a genuine threat to Assad’s regime or if he can stabilize his forces and regain lost territory.
Despite appearing to have weathered the worst of the conflict, Assad’s control remains tenuous. While many believed that the civil war’s most intense phases were behind him, vast areas of Syria remain out of his grasp. The international landscape was starting to shift as Arab nations began normalizing relations with Assad, and humanitarian aid transitioned from emergency assistance to recovery funding, thus providing a critical lifeline for many Syrians. However, the unexpected insurgent attack that began on November 27 shocked both the regime and international observers with its aggressiveness and speed.
The instability has heightened anxiety among neighboring countries, concerned about the ramifications of escalating violence and the potential influx of refugees. There is also apprehension regarding the rising power of extremist groups along the borders, which poses a significant dilemma for Syria’s Arab neighbors.
Recent geopolitical events have created an environment conducive for Assad’s opponents to launch their offensive. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, beginning in February 2022, coupled with the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, 2023, has shifted focus away from Syria. As Syrian forces crumbled under pressure, reports of soldier defections emerged, and Russian air support became sporadic. Although Hezbollah’s leadership has vowed to support Assad, there has been no indication of renewed troop deployments.
The rapid changes underscore the fragility of Assad’s grasp on power; major gains made by the rebels serve as a reminder of the latent tensions that continue to simmer beneath the surface of Syria’s seemingly controlled environment. Experts indicate that the recent developments represent a foreign policy setback for both Russia and Iran, which face numerous resource challenges as they try to navigate multiple conflicts.
After a period of relative stalemate in conflict lines since 2020, Syria’s economic situation has worsened considerably, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions and a banking crisis in Lebanon. An earthquake last year has also contributed to overwhelming financial distress for the Syrian populace, leading to significant degradation of state institutions and erosion of military salaries.
In an effort to gain support, insurgents called for defections among government soldiers, offering protection cards that provide amnesty from retribution. Reports indicate a substantial number of defections—over 1,600 soldiers registered for these cards in a matter of days, demonstrating a significant shift among Syrian military ranks.
As defections surge, those leaving the regime are presenting their weapons and formally registering their details with insurgent groups. Statements from defectors highlight a desire for a new identity and a shift away from a regime that many perceive as exhausted and dysfunctional.
Despite widespread assumptions that the situation in Syria has stabilized, the armed opposition has remained active and prepared for action, and several factions have continued to strategize to reclaim territory from Assad’s regime. Analysts suggest that the regime may be more vulnerable now than it has been at any point during the prolonged conflict. This changing landscape challenges the belief that Assad could simply wait out opposition efforts and ultimately retain control.