Texas’ power grid operator has issued a warning for residents to brace for severe cold temperatures this winter, although it noted that the state’s primary power grid has been enhanced to better handle a strong winter storm compared to previous years.
During a recent board meeting, executives from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) highlighted that the risk of outages typically rises in winter months. However, the introduction of new power generation capabilities over the past year has significantly diminished the chances of emergencies arising from extreme cold weather.
ERCOT’s meteorologist, Chris Coleman, provided a forecast indicating that while above-average temperatures are expected this winter, there remains a heightened, “greater-than-average” likelihood of experiencing cold snaps. Coleman noted that even amidst warmer overall temperatures, extreme cold incidents have become increasingly common in recent years.
Climate scientists generally concur that these patterns are linked to climate change, although the term did not surface during the ERCOT presentations. In his report, Coleman suggested that the years 2023 and 2024 are on track to potentially become the hottest recorded in Texas history.
He explained, “It is feasible to experience a warm winter while simultaneously confronting extreme cold, an occurrence that is becoming more routine.” He pointed out that five out of the last eight winters have witnessed temperatures that have reached such alarming levels.
Coleman’s analysis drew comparisons to the climatic conditions observed in 2021, which preceded Winter Storm Uri—a catastrophic event that led to plunging temperatures, extensive power outages, and resulted in nearly 250 fatalities across the state.
“While this doesn’t mean we are certain to encounter a repeat of Uri, it does indicate that we are experiencing a pattern that could create similar circumstances this winter,” Coleman cautioned, mentioning that the conditions appear conducive to such an event.
If another significant winter storm occurs, it would put to the test the improvements that have been implemented in ERCOT’s grid since the 2021 crisis. ERCOT’s CEO, Pablo Vegas, remarked that the power demands during winter months have surged, with the grid experiencing record peaks of 78,349 megawatts in January.
Since November 2023, Texas’ grid has incorporated more than 10,000 megawatts of new generation resources, which has played a crucial role in lowering the likelihood of outages, Vegas explained. The new resources consist of approximately 5,155 megawatts of solar energy and 3,693 megawatts of electricity storage capacity—a level of solar and storage deployment within a single year that surpasses the totals of many other states. Additionally, the state has introduced 724 megawatts of natural gas generation and 616 megawatts from wind sources.
This increased capacity has contributed to a drop in expected emergency situations during peak demand periods, decreasing from 11.6% last winter to 8.7% this winter, as noted in Vegas’ brief.
In a press conference addressing emergency readiness, Governor Greg Abbott claimed that Texas is “fully prepared as a state” to assure a stable power supply through any forthcoming storms. Abbott also highlighted the legislative measures enacted to bolster the grid and the expanding energy resources available. “We are working tirelessly to guarantee that power remains uninterrupted, irrespective of the kind of winter storm that may hit,” he affirmed.
ERCOT estimates that one megawatt of electricity is sufficient to supply around 250 households in Texas during peak demand; however, some energy analysts dispute this figure, suggesting that older heating systems in numerous homes might require more energy.
Additionally, the state’s weatherization initiatives have enhanced grid reliability in anticipation of winter. Since the Texas Legislature instituted weatherization regulations in 2021 post-Uri, ERCOT has conducted 2,892 inspections of generation and transmission facilities.
Vegas remarked that these requirements have “significantly altered the risk profile of the ERCOT grid, especially during winter.” Nevertheless, he emphasized that both wind and solar energy sources tend to yield less power during the colder months, while demand inevitably climbs.
During the Uri storm, extreme cold compromised all energy sources statewide, leading to failures in wind turbines, gas power plant machinery, and natural gas supply systems due to freezing issues.