The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Tuesday night, presenting a final opportunity to gauge which teams stand a chance to qualify for the playoff, which is set to start on December 20th. Approximately 18 teams are realistically competing for 12 playoff spots. Only Oregon remains undefeated, while Notre Dame, which boasts a 10-game winning streak, is not in action this weekend. Beyond these two teams, the playoff picture is quite uncertain.
This upcoming ranking will be the last before the official reveal of the playoff bracket on Sunday, with several conference championship games taking place in the interim that will likely influence the selections made by the 13-member selection committee. Clearly, the top five ranked conference champions will secure their spots in the playoffs irrespective of their individual placements in the rankings. The leading four teams will earn coveted byes into the quarterfinals, while the remaining eight will compete in first-round matchups on their home fields. Surprises in the conference title games, scheduled for Friday and Saturday, could significantly alter the playoff landscape.
Miami is currently on the bubble with two losses but has yet to claim a victory against any ranked teams in the AP Top 25. In comparison, Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina, all part of the SEC, have recorded three losses each, yet their tougher schedules give them a higher chance of being in contention. Last week, Miami was positioned sixth in the CFP rankings but suffered a setback against Syracuse, which compromised its chances of accessing the Atlantic Coast Conference title game and may lead to the Hurricanes dropping out of the Top 12. Meanwhile, the three SEC teams were ranked 13th, 14th, and 15th last week.
Warde Manuel, the committee chair, highlighted the committee’s history of including a sizable number of three-loss teams in the Top 12 – 22 over the past decade when only four teams made the playoffs. However, in the current format, everything beyond the top four remains uncertain and subject to outcomes from the upcoming games.
Winning a conference championship now holds greater weight, potentially granting access to the playoffs for teams that otherwise wouldn’t qualify. This situation particularly applies to Clemson and UNLV, both of whom sit outside the playoff picture but could secure spots with upset victories in their respective games. Clemson faces a tough challenge as a 2.5-point underdog against SMU in the ACC, while UNLV is a 4-point underdog to Boise State in the Mountain West. Boise State held the 11th spot in last week’s rankings, and a loss could eliminate its playoff hopes, whereas SMU, ranked ninth with a nine-game winning streak, would similarly risk its position with a defeat.
Last week, Penn State was ranked fourth and is expected to rise further after a solid victory over Maryland, coupled with Ohio State’s loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions are likely secure regardless of the outcome of their Big Ten title game against Oregon. However, they must contend with a previous loss at home to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes, ranked second, are not appearing as formidable now after their recent loss.
The matchup between Georgia and Texas in the SEC title game could have significant implications. Regardless of the outcome, the loser should remain in playoff contention. However, a loss for Texas would add a second defeat for the team, both against Georgia, leaving questions about their schedule strength. Conversely, for Georgia, a third loss would be a concern since the earlier defeats were against Alabama and Ole Miss. If both teams qualify next week, expect backlash from supporters of Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.
On the other hand, teams like Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ohio State, and Indiana might benefit from not having games this week, despite missing the chance to compete for conference titles. Indiana dropped five spots to 10th after losing to Ohio State but rebounded with a decisive win against Purdue. While their schedule has been criticized, their recent performance could mitigate those concerns.
In the Big 12, the most pressing question seems to be whether Boise State of the Mountain West will secure the final bye. Arizona State’s ranking may provide insights into this dilemma. Last week, the Sun Devils were ranked 16th, trailing Boise State by five spots, but given their recent performance, there are debates on whether that deserves a significant leap in rankings.