MEXICO CITY — President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico expressed optimism on Thursday regarding the possibility of avoiding a tariff conflict with the United States. However, her remarks following a phone discussion with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump did not clarify the specifics of what was proposed during their conversation.
“There will be no potential tariff war,” Sheinbaum asserted confidently when questioned about the topic during her regular morning news briefing.
On Wednesday, Trump mentioned in a post that Sheinbaum had agreed to take measures against unauthorized migration into the U.S. In turn, Sheinbaum confirmed on her social media that measures were being enacted to manage migrant flows before they reach the border. Nevertheless, the nature of this agreement remains ambiguous, leading to questions about whether it was a formal commitment or simply her acknowledgment of an existing situation. Historically, migrants who lack permission to traverse Mexico have often formed caravans as they head northward toward the U.S. border, seeking safety in numbers.
Notably, with the exception of the initial caravans in 2018 and 2019, which received bus assistance for part of their journey, no other caravan has successfully reached the U.S. border through walking or hitchhiking as a unified group. Over the years, migrant caravans have frequently encountered obstacles such as police and migration authorities in Mexico, who have blocked, harassed, or returned them to areas close to the Guatemalan border. Therefore, Sheinbaum’s recent statements appear to reflect a long-standing reality.
U.S. President Joe Biden recently expressed his hope that Trump would reconsider his intention to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, suggesting it could harm relationships with close allies. In comments to the press in Nantucket, Massachusetts, Biden stated, “I hope he rethinks it. I think it’s a counterproductive thing to do.”
Trump had previously threatened the imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, contingent on those nations effectively curbing illegal immigration and the influx of illegal substances such as fentanyl into the U.S. Additionally, he announced that imports from China would also face a 10% tariff until sufficient action was taken against the production of materials involved in fentanyl manufacturing.
Despite Sheinbaum’s confidence and her description of the dialogue with Trump as “excellent,” many in Mexico remain concerned that U.S. tariffs could significantly impact a variety of iconic Mexican goods and jeopardize local economies. Particularly, in western Mexico, avocados provide crucial income for many small farmers, as Mexico is the leading supplier of avocados to the U.S. market. Growers, pickers, and packers fear that if faced with a 25% price hike, American consumers may choose to forgo guacamole.
Earlier in the week, Sheinbaum also announced that Mexico was compiling a list of potential retaliatory tariffs should Trump proceed with his import duty plans. If Trump’s proposed additional tariffs were to affect Mexico, Canada, and China on all imported goods, the resulting tax revenue could reach approximately $266 billion, not accounting for any trade disruptions or retaliatory actions by other nations.
The financial burden of these taxes would likely fall on American families, importers, and both domestic and foreign companies, resulting in increased prices or diminished profits.