Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) will face the Carolina Panthers (3-8) on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. EST, with the game being broadcasted on FOX. Currently, BetMGM has the Buccaneers favored by 6 points. This season, the Buccaneers have a 7-4 record against the spread, while the Panthers sit at 4-7. In historical matchups, the Panthers hold a slight edge in the series with a record of 25-22, although the Buccaneers managed to win their most recent encounter 9-0 on January 7, 2024, in Carolina. Last week, Tampa Bay enjoyed a decisive 30-7 victory over the New York Giants, while Carolina lost a nail-biter to the Kansas City Chiefs 30-27.

Examining the offensive statistics, the Buccaneers rank 7th overall, with their rushing attack sitting at 10th and their passing game also at 7th, alongside possessing the 4th most potent scoring offense. However, the Buccaneers’ defense struggles, ranked 29th overall, with their run defense at 16th and their pass defense also at 29th, while their scoring defense is at 24th. In contrast, Carolina’s offense is the least effective in the league, ranking 31st overall, with a 24th place for their rushing game, 31st for passing, and 29th for scoring. Defensively, the Panthers hold a 30th place ranking overall, with the worst rush defense and a slightly better pass defense ranking of 24th, culminating in a scoring defense that places them last in the league.

The turnover differential shows that Tampa Bay is even, while the Panthers are down by five. A pivotal player for Tampa Bay is quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has maintained an impressive 3-0 record against the Panthers, achieving a season series sweep last year against the team that released him in 2022. Although Mayfield did not throw a touchdown pass last week—marking the first game without one this season—he has still connected for 24 touchdowns overall. Notably, he has thrown nine interceptions this season, yet he has not recorded any in his past three games.

For the Panthers, keep an eye on outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum, who has significantly enhanced the Panthers’ pass-rushing game over the last two outings. Since his return from a calf injury that sidelined him for the initial nine weeks, the Panthers have accumulated seven sacks, a dramatic improvement from the mere ten sacks achieved in the first nine games without him. His presence has also alleviated some pressure on fellow outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney.

A key matchup to watch is between Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans and Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn. Evans made a strong return last week after being absent for three games and part of a fourth due to a hamstring injury. His influence on the Buccaneers’ offensive output was clear, with quarterback Baker Mayfield completing passes to 11 different targets for a total of 294 yards and a solid 157 rushing yards during the 23-point win against the Giants. In his battles against Carolina, Evans has accumulated impressive stats, with 102 receptions for 1,480 yards and 11 touchdowns over 19 games. Meanwhile, Horn, as Carolina’s top cornerback, is set to face off against Evans.

In terms of injuries, Tampa Bay is keeping an eye on left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who missed last week’s game due to a knee sprain. Safety Jordan Whitehead and linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka also suffered injuries in last week’s matchup against the Giants, leaving their statuses uncertain for this weekend’s game. For the Panthers, tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders will be unavailable due to a neck injury sustained last week that required hospitalization. While Sanders is recovering, his participation is not expected. Additionally, wide receiver Jalen Coker’s return remains uncertain as he missed last week’s game due to a quad injury.

Historically, despite the Panthers leading the series 25-22, the Buccaneers have emerged victorious in the last three matchups, claiming seven wins out of the last eight encounters.

Statistically, last week marked the end of a four-game losing streak for the Buccaneers, positioning them just one game back of first-place Atlanta in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have clinched the division title for the past three consecutive years. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,799 yards, with a remarkable record of 24 touchdowns against nine interceptions, standing third in the NFL for touchdown passes behind Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. With one more touchdown pass, he will join Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks in Tampa Bay history to have thrown for over 25 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Wide receiver Mike Evans is also on the brink of a milestone—he is merely seven receptions away from 800 and just one touchdown catch from leapfrogging Hall of Famers Steve Largent and Tim Brown to claim ninth place on the all-time touchdown receptions list with 101.

Additionally, Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving ranks second among NFL rookies in rushing with 579 yards and is tied for the rookie lead in rushing touchdowns with five, in conjunction with Washington QB Jayden Daniels. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. boasts an impressive record against Carolina, accumulating five sacks, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, and an interception in seven contests against them. Tampa Bay’s defensive line, with Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, has bolstered the pass rush with six and five sacks respectively, contributing to a team total of 30 sacks over the last eight games.

On the Panthers’ side, head coach Dave Canales previously served as the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young is struggling with a starting record of 4-18 in the NFL. Running back Chuba Hubbard is closing in on a milestone, needing just 124 rushing yards to break the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. Following a hamstring injury in Week 3, wide receiver Adam Thielen made a return last week against the Chiefs, managing three receptions for 57 yards. Additionally, receiver Jalen Coker requires only 34 more receiving yards to surpass Corey Brown for the most in a single season by an undrafted rookie in Panthers history. Kicker Eddy Pineiro impressed with a perfect 4-for-4 field goal performance against Kansas City and stands at 16-for-17 for the season—remarkably, he has also made 40 consecutive field goals at Bank of America Stadium, placing him second for the longest streak in Panthers history behind Graham Gano’s 41 consecutive makes from 2016-2018. He has also converted all 18 of his extra-point attempts this season.

Fantasy football enthusiasts should consider Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard, who has scored four rushing touchdowns over the past three games and is poised to remain central to the team’s offensive strategy, even with the recent return of rookie Jonathon Brooks from injury last week.