In a recent announcement from Washington, President-elect Donald Trump has put forth his choice for secretary of the Navy, John Phelan. Notably, Phelan lacks military service as well as any significant civilian leadership experience within the armed forces. Although defense specialists acknowledge the Navy’s urgent requirement for innovative change, they express concerns that Phelan’s inexperience may hinder his ability to achieve Trump’s future objectives.

Trump nominated Phelan late Tuesday; he is known as a major contributor to Trump’s campaign and is the founder of Rugger Management LLC, a private investment firm. The transition team did not provide any commentary regarding Phelan’s qualifications. Per his professional background, Phelan’s most relevant association with the military is through an advisory role at Spirit of America, a nonprofit organization that is focused on supporting Ukraine’s military and Taiwan’s defense efforts.

While not every individual appointed as a service secretary has prior military experience, Phelan would be the first Navy secretary without it since 2006. In contrast, the Secretary of the Army, Christine Wormuth, also lacks military service but brings extensive experience from various civilian defense positions over her career.

Phelan’s nomination occurs at a pivotal time for the Navy, which is facing challenges related to its global deployments amid a decreasing fleet size, especially while its main competitor, China, is significantly expanding its naval forces. Trump has advocated for an increase in the Navy’s size, but successfully combating bureaucratic obstacles will be a challenge. The potential effectiveness of a secretary without prior military experience in navigating and leading this initiative remains debatable.

Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director at the Center for a New American Security, commented that leading a sprawling organization such as the service without prior experience could pose difficulties. She suggested that navigating the complex political and cultural landscape of military organizations typically requires a comprehensive understanding of established processes and bureaucratic structures.

Analysts point out that Phelan’s nomination reflects Trump’s preference for leaders who align closely with his vision, but this lack of experience may result in additional challenges and delays, which the Navy can ill afford, particularly considering the heightened tensions surrounding Taiwan, a region that China claims as its own. Brad Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, highlighted the significant implications that the Navy’s performance in the forthcoming years could have on stability in the Taiwan Strait and beyond.

Initially campaigning for a Navy with 350 ships since 2016, Trump has faced the daunting realities of shipbuilding and a convoluted congressional budgeting process that makes that goal difficult to achieve. Currently, the Navy has just under 300 active battle force ships involved in direct combat operations.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the Navy is stretched thin due to commitments in locations such as Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific. As geopolitical tensions continue to rise, particularly in the Middle East, strategists have urged a strategic withdrawal from some areas, but ongoing conflicts have made this problematic. The incoming secretary will face the dual challenges of managing a dwindling fleet and increasing overseas responsibilities within a financial climate that remains uncertain.

The U.S. Marine Corps has proposed the need for 31 amphibious warships to effectively maintain maritime presence. Additionally, the ongoing global instability often forces the Navy to extend the deployments of essential vessels like aircraft carriers and destroyers, leading to maintenance delays and negatively impacting the morale and family lives of service members.

Secretaries of the military must adeptly manage communications with the White House, navigate Congressional scrutiny, craft budget plans, address service members’ needs, and engage in various industry discussions, all requiring deep knowledge of the institution they oversee. Such expertise is vital, as effecting any meaningful transformation in a military branch often entails prolonged negotiation and reconsideration of existing policies. Furthermore, the procurement process for necessary naval and Marine Corps weapon systems can be riddled with delays.

Cancian pointed out that financial constraints pose a critical issue for the Navy. Even with potential increases in defense spending, the budget for shipbuilding may only see marginal growth. If the budget stabilizes or shrinks, the Navy faces substantial setbacks ahead.

Finally, Trump appears determined to streamline government processes and cut red tape, as evidenced by his appointment of SpaceX founder Elon Musk to help lead a non-governmental Department of Government Efficiency. However, the prospect of a service secretary swiftly circumventing existing regulations is complicated by the legislative framework set forth by Congress, which established many of those processes.

While Phelan’s personal rapport with the president might afford him some advantages, experts caution that his lack of military and defense experience could impose constraints on the Navy’s effectiveness moving forward, suggesting that he will need time to acclimate to the ways of the Pentagon.