Houston Texans Face Jacksonville Jaguars in Key Matchup

The Houston Texans (7-5) are set to take on the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) this Sunday at 1 p.m. EST, broadcasted on FOX. The odds favor the Texans by 4½ points as they look to improve their playoff prospects.

When examining their performance against the spread, the Texans have a record of 5-6-1 while the Jaguars stand at 6-5. Historically, the Texans hold a commanding lead in the series, winning 30 out of 45 encounters. In their most recent face-off, which took place in Houston on September 29, 2024, the Texans edged out the Jaguars with a close 24-20 victory.

Looking back at last week, the Texans nearly defeated the Titans but ultimately fell short, losing 32-27, while the Jaguars enjoyed a bye week. The Texans have demonstrated strong defensive stats overall, ranking 5th in total defense, 10th against the run, and 5th against the pass. However, their offensive performance is only ranked 16th overall, with a scoring rank of 11. In contrast, the Jaguars’ offensive performance is severely lacking, positioned at 30th overall, and they sit at 32nd in total defense, indicating a significant challenge ahead.

The turnover differential also tells a story, with the Texans at plus-9, a testament to their ability to create turnovers, while the Jaguars struggle with a differential of minus-8.

One crucial player for the Texans to keep an eye on is Joe Mixon. After a tough outing against the Titans where he managed only 22 rushing yards, Mixon will be eager to bounce back, having previously been a dominator with over 100 yards in six of the last seven games he completed. He leads the team with 786 rushing yards and has scored 10 rushing touchdowns this season, with a notable record of scoring in four of his five games against the Jaguars.

On the Jaguars’ side, defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have the potential to significantly impact the game. The Texans’ offensive line has struggled, allowing 17 sacks over the last four games, and facing a potent defensive duo may pose further challenges for quarterback C.J. Stroud.

A key matchup to watch will be Jaguars rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. against Texans cornerback Derek Stingley. With the Jaguars lacking depth in their receiving corps due to injuries, Thomas has become a primary target, making five grabs for 82 yards in the previous game. He will be tested against Stingley, who has been effective in coverage, with interceptions in two of his three meetings with Jacksonville.

In terms of injuries, the Jaguars anticipate the return of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has been sidelined for two weeks due to a non-throwing shoulder issue. They also expect to regain running back Tank Bigsby, who missed the previous game due to an ankle injury.

Historically, the Texans have dominated recent encounters, winning eleven of the last thirteen while enjoying a five-game winning streak on the road against the Jaguars. Moreover, they have emerged victorious in 22 of the last 28 matchups, showcasing a remarkable trend.

Diving into some statistics, the Texans have stumbled recently, losing three of their last four games following a strong 6-2 start. However, they tied a franchise record with eight sacks against the Titans. Stroud, despite showing promise, has thrown five interceptions in his last three games, bringing his season total to nine. Receiver Nico Collins had 92 yards and a touchdown last week, adding to his previous impressive performance against Jacksonville, where he had 12 catches for 151 yards. Additionally, rookie tight end Cade Stover notched his first career touchdown last week.

On the other hand, the Jaguars are mired in a four-game losing streak and boast a dismal record of 1-5 in closely contested matchups. Lawrence has managed to throw for over 300 yards in two of his three home starts, while Thomas stands out among rookies with five receiving touchdowns and ranks third in receiving yards. As for tight end Evan Engram, he has been reliable, recording five or more catches in his last three outings. Linebacker Foye Oluokun has consistently contributed, with at least 11 tackles in the last three games against the Texans.

For fantasy players, it may be worth considering Dalton Schultz, as the Jaguars have had difficulty defending against tight ends, making this a prime opportunity for Schultz to capture his first touchdown of the season.