San Francisco (5-6) is set to face Buffalo (9-2) this Sunday at 8:20 PM EST, with NBC broadcasting the match. According to BetMGM, the Bills are favored by 7 points in this game. Historically, the Bills hold a slim edge in their series against the 49ers with a record of 7-6. When looking at performance against the spread, San Francisco stands at 4-7, while Buffalo is 7-4. The teams last squared off on December 7, 2020, where Buffalo emerged victorious with a score of 34-24 in Glendale, Arizona. Going into this matchup, the 49ers are coming off a disappointing defeat against the Packers (38-10), while the Bills enjoyed a bye week.
Examining the statistics, the 49ers boast a strong overall offense ranked 4th, with their rush game at 7th and their passing game also 4th, although they sit at 13th in scoring. Defensively, San Francisco ranks 6th overall, 11th against the rush, and 6th against the pass, allowing the 20th fewest points. In contrast, the Bills hold the 13th overall offensive ranking, with their rushing and passing games both at 11th and 13th, respectively. Buffalo’s scoring ranks notably higher at 3rd. On defense, the Bills are struggling a bit more with a 15th overall ranking, and they sit at 13th against the rush and 14th against the pass, allowing the 7th fewest points. In terms of turnovers, the 49ers are even, whereas the Bills boast a significant advantage with a +14 differential.
One player to keep an eye on for San Francisco is defensive end Leonard Floyd. Recently acquired from the Bills during free agency, this will be his first game back in Buffalo. Floyd has stepped up with 3.5 sacks in the last two games after a slow start, totaling just three sacks in the first nine games of the season. Last year, he contributed significantly to the Bills with 10.5 sacks in his only season with the team.
For Buffalo, wide receiver Amari Cooper is a player to watch. After joining the Bills from the Browns, Cooper has had limited impact due to a wrist injury and the challenge of settling into the new playbook. He has recorded seven catches for 124 yards and one touchdown across three games since his arrival. However, having had a bye week to recover and a month to build rapport with quarterback Josh Allen, this game might be a turning point for Cooper.
A critical matchup to observe on Sunday will be the 49ers’ running back Christian McCaffrey against the Bills’ run defense. Buffalo recently demonstrated significant improvement, having contained the Chiefs’ running game to just 78 yards, especially noteworthy compared to allowing 271 yards to Derrick Henry and the Ravens earlier in the season. However, McCaffrey and San Francisco’s usually robust running game have struggled this year, with McCaffrey managing only 149 yards rushing and 132 receiving without scoring a touchdown in three specific contests.
In terms of injuries, the 49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to be back, having resumed throwing after missing a game due to a sore shoulder. San Francisco is also hopeful for the return of defensive end Nick Bosa (hip, oblique) and left tackle Trent Williams (ankle). Additionally, the team is dealing with multiple players who have entered concussion protocol, including left guard Aaron Banks, defensive tackle Jordan Elliott, and wide receiver Jacob Cowing. On the Bills’ side, tight end Dalton Kincaid remains sidelined with a knee injury, while rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is limited with a right wrist issue. Right tackle Spencer Brown might return after a brief absence. The Bills are still weighing their options regarding linebacker Matt Milano, who is recovering from a torn biceps.
Historically, the Bills and 49ers faced off in Arizona due to COVID-19 restrictions back in 2020. Buffalo recorded a 45-16 victory when San Francisco last traveled to Orchard Park in 2016, resulting in a home series record of 3-2 favoring the Bills. Notably, Buffalo has won the last two matchups against San Francisco, with no team successfully clinching three consecutive victories in this series.
Statistically, San Francisco has encountered difficulties, losing two straight games and registering their first losing record this late in the season since a 6-10 finish in 2020. The 49ers’ upcoming face-off marks the fourth instance this season where they will confront a team coming off a bye, having previously gone 1-2 in similar situations. Additionally, the 49ers only managed 11 first downs in their recent game, equaling the lowest total in eight years under coach Kyle Shanahan. They have also struggled to score offensive touchdowns from outside the red zone, ranking among the lowest in the NFL.
On the other hand, the Bills are enjoying their best start in over three decades, achieving a record of 9-2 for only the sixth time in franchise history and the first time since 1992. Their current winning streak of six games is the longest since they concluded last season with seven consecutive wins. Buffalo has notably scored over 30 points in five straight games this season, a record that not only leads the league but is also reflective of their offensive prowess. Quarterback Josh Allen has been a key factor, though he has seen an increase in turnovers recently, throwing five interceptions in the past four games. Running back James Cook also made headlines by becoming the first Buffalo player in seven years to rush for ten touchdowns.
For fantasy players, Buffalo’s defense and special teams could be an attractive option, particularly with the potential of Brandon Allen starting for Purdy. Buffalo’s Brandon Codrington leads in punt return yards, potentially providing additional points through special teams, especially against a 49ers squad struggling in that area.