Miami Dolphins (5-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST, NBC
BetMGM NFL odds: Packers favored by 3
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-6; Packers 5-6
Series record: Dolphins leading 14-9
Last encounter: Packers triumphed 26-20 in Miami on December 25, 2022
Last week: Dolphins dominated the Patriots at home with a 34-15 victory, while the Packers showcased their strength with a 38-10 win against the 49ers at home.
Dolphins’ offensive stats: ranked 19th overall, 16th in rushing, 19th in passing, and 24th in scoring.
Packers’ offensive stats: tied for 5th overall, 3rd in rushing, 11th in passing, and 8th in scoring.
Dolphins’ defensive stats: 7th overall, 9th in rushing, 8th in passing, and 11th in scoring.
Packers’ defensive stats: 11th overall, 12th in rushing, 11th in passing, and 10th in scoring.
Turnover differentials: Dolphins at minus-1; Packers at plus-8.

**Dolphins Key Player**
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been in stellar form since returning from a concussion in Week 8. He has amassed 1,277 passing yards, thrown for 11 touchdowns, and only one interception in the subsequent five games. Leading the NFL with a 73.3% completion rate, he recently delivered an impressive outing with four touchdowns and 317 yards passing. Tagovailoa is on a notable streak, having thrown a touchdown pass in the last 11 games, marking one of the longest active streaks in the league this season.

**Packers Key Player**
Safety Xavier McKinney made headlines by securing his seventh interception during last Sunday’s game, which ties him with Kerby Joseph of the Lions for the league lead. This achievement makes him the first Packer to accumulate this many interceptions in a single season since the legendary Charles Woodson in 2011. McKinney’s impact extends beyond interceptions, as he has recorded a total of eight takeaways, including a fumble recovery.

**Key Matchup**
A significant duel to watch is between Packers running back Josh Jacobs and the Dolphins’ run defense. Jacobs recorded three rushing touchdowns in his last appearance and has accounted for seven touchdowns in total over his last five games, including six rushing and one receiving. He currently ranks third in the NFL with 944 rushing yards, following only Saquon Barkley of the Eagles and Derrick Henry of the Ravens. The Dolphins, allowing an average of 106.9 rushing yards per game, rank ninth in the league in that category.

**Injury Report**
For the Dolphins, cornerback Kendall Fuller is likely to be sidelined for a third consecutive game due to a concussion. Linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. might also miss the contest after sustaining a hamstring injury last week. Coach Mike McDaniel indicated that Walker’s injury isn’t expected to be long-term. Offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn has been activated from the physically unable to perform list; he may return this week. On the Packers’ side, wide receiver Romeo Doubs exited the previous game due to a concussion, while cornerback Jaire Alexander has played only one half over the past three games due to a knee injury. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper also missed last week’s action due to a hamstring issue.

**Series History**
Despite the Dolphins holding a series lead, the Packers have been the more dominant team recently, winning three straight meetings and six out of the last eight encounters. Miami enjoyed a remarkable eight-game winning streak against Green Bay before the Packers snapped it on September 14, 1997. In their previous clash, the Packers intercepted Tagovailoa three times. Key performances included Miami’s Jaylen Waddle, who tallied five receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown, while Tyreek Hill secured four catches for 103 yards.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur share a unique connection, having worked together as assistants with the Texans, Redskins, and Falcons.

**Additional Stats**
This Thanksgiving will mark the Dolphins’ eighth appearance on the holiday, with their last game on this date occurring in 2011, a narrow loss to the Cowboys (20-19). Historically, Miami boasts a 5-2 record on Thanksgiving. The Dolphins have struggled against the Packers recently, last achieving victory in 2014, and have not emerged victorious at Lambeau Field since 2010. A win would mark the Dolphins’ eighth victory against an NFC rival under McDaniel’s leadership. Since Tagovailoa’s return from injury, Miami has improved to a 3-2 record and excels with the second-best third down conversion rate (55.0%) and first in fourth down efficiency. Notably, they averaged just 10 points per game without Tagovailoa, having been the league’s worst offensive team at that time.

In other player milestones, running back De’Von Achane needs just 65 scrimmage yards to surpass 1,000 total yards for his first season achievement, while wide receiver Tyreek Hill is aiming for his 80th receiving touchdown, a milestone reached by only three active players. The Dolphins’ defense has impressively held their opponents under 100 rushing yards for five consecutive games.

In a rare occurrence, the Packers are making back-to-back Thanksgiving appearances, having won against the Lions 29-22 last year. Historically, the Packers face the Lions every Thanksgiving from 1951-1963 but have only played at home on this holiday twice since 1923. Green Bay boasts an undefeated record against AFC teams this season, having played exclusively against the AFC South. Coach Matt LaFleur holds an impressive 64-30 record during regular seasons. Despite being third in the NFC North, the Packers have the best record through Week 13 of any team ranked third or lower in their division since the merger in 1970.

**Fantasy Insight**
For those playing fantasy football, Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has emerged as a valuable asset, with 15 receptions and three touchdowns over the last two games. His heightened involvement in the passing game should yield plenty of opportunities for fantasy points this week.