WASHINGTON — In a recent evening announcement, President-elect Donald Trump expressed strong criticism towards Mexico and Canada, claiming they allow thousands of individuals to cross into the United States.
Staying true to a recurring theme established during his campaign and throughout his first presidential term, Trump depicted the nation’s borders as unsafe and highlighted the role of immigrants in perpetuating crime and the ongoing fentanyl crisis. In this announcement, he also suggested the possibility of enforcing a 25% tariff on all goods entering the U.S. from these neighboring countries.
Trump’s anti-immigration stance has found favor among voters anxious about the intersections of immigration and crime. However, a deeper examination of the statistics and research revealing border crossings, fentanyl trafficking, and the potential relationship between immigration and crime narrates a more complex story.
**Border Crossings**
Monitoring the volume of migrants traversing the U.S.-Mexico border is a crucial aspect closely observed by both Democratic and Republican officials.
The Customs and Border Protection agency, a division of the Department of Homeland Security, regularly publishes monthly reports that include data on drug seizures and cross-border commerce. Among the figures tracked are the arrests or encounters by Border Patrol with individuals attempting to enter the country outside designated ports of entry.
Most of these encounters occur at the southern border. Interestingly, this year, under the Biden administration, the arrest numbers have been on a decline. For example, in October, the Border Patrol recorded 56,530 arrests, marking the lowest figure in approximately four years.
The situation has seen fluctuations over time. The Biden administration faced challenges in curbing the surging numbers of migrants approaching the southern border. Nearly a year ago, December 2022 saw Border Patrol making around a quarter of a million arrests — the highest number ever recorded. Disruptions in cross-border trade ensued as border officials were redirected to process migrants, leading to temporary shutdowns of transit traffic.
Since then, there has been a sustained decrease in border encounters, supported by a mix of stricter enforcement measures on Mexico’s part and updated asylum regulations initiated by the Biden administration earlier this year.
However, Republicans have added a note of caution regarding these figures. They have consistently accused the Biden administration of utilizing an application known as CBP One to permit hundreds of thousands of individuals into the U.S. who wouldn’t ordinarily qualify. This initiative, allowing 1,450 individuals per day to schedule U.S. entry appointments, is described by critics as a mechanism to artificially reduce the border encounter statistics.
On the northern border, the encounter numbers are significantly lower, with Border Patrol making 23,721 arrests from October 2023 to September 2024, compared to 10,021 in the preceding year.
During Trump’s presidency, he, too, grappled with controlling illegal border crossings. Arrests peaked at over 850,000 in 2019, a figure nearly three times higher than two years prior, though this still remains below the over 2 million counts registered during two separate years under Biden.
**Drug Smuggling**
Trump and many Republicans have frequently painted the southern border as a vulnerable point for drug trafficking. They commonly associate immigrants with drug smuggling and criticize Mexico for its lack of effective measures to combat this issue.
Much of the fentanyl entering the U.S. originates from Mexico. The epidemic of fentanyl began long before Biden assumed office. Under his administration, seizures of fentanyl have increased dramatically; in the 2023 fiscal year, authorities confiscated roughly 27,000 pounds (about 12,247 kilograms) of fentanyl, in stark contrast to the 2,545 pounds (roughly 1,154 kilograms) seized in 2019 when Trump was in office.
The cooperation between U.S. and Mexican governments in tackling drug trafficking faced challenges during President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s term, which concluded at the end of September.
Prior to López Obrador’s presidency in December 2018, the U.S. had strong collaborations with Mexican military forces aimed at dismantling drug cartels. However, López Obrador, known for his nationalist stance, criticized the violence resulting from past administrations’ drug-related campaigns, instead opting for a strategy focusing on social reforms to combat the root causes of crime, coining the phrase “hugs, not bullets.”
For many years, López Obrador denied Mexico’s role in fentanyl production, despite evidence indicating the contrary, including statements from his security advisors. He attributed drug addiction issues to societal influences in the U.S. that push children into drug use prematurely.
Currently, only a couple of months into the presidency of Claudia Sheinbaum, statistics reveal that while most fentanyl originates from Mexico, a significant majority of those involved in trafficking are American citizens. The U.S. Sentencing Commission reported that 86.4% of the individuals sentenced for fentanyl trafficking in the year ending September 2023 were U.S. citizens.
**Crime and Immigration**
Trump has also claimed that the surge of immigrants contributes to rising crime in the U.S.; however, overall statistics indicate that violent crime rates are falling.
Texas remains the only state that differentiates crime statistics based on immigration status. A study conducted by the National Academy of Sciences employing data from the Texas Department of Public Safety from 2012 to 2016 concluded that individuals in the U.S. illegally exhibited “substantially lower crime rates than native-born citizens and legal immigrants across various felony categories.”
While the FBI does not categorize crimes by the immigration status of the perpetrator, there is a lack of evidence indicating an increase in crimes committed by migrants, either at the U.S.-Mexico border or in major cities that have seen an influx of immigrants, such as New York. Research shows that individuals living in the U.S. without legal status are less inclined to be apprehended for violent, drug-related, or property crimes compared to native-born Americans.
Some degree of crime is unavoidable given the sizable immigrant population. As of January 2022, it was estimated that around 11 million individuals were residing in the country illegally, according to data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. In 2022, the Census Bureau estimated the foreign-born population at 46.2 million, nearly 14% of the total populace, with most states experiencing significant increases over the past twelve years.
Republicans have highlighted cases of high-profile criminal incidents involving immigrants, such as the tragic murder of 22-year-old Laken Riley in Georgia last February, arguing that any crime committed by an individual without legal status represents an offense that should not have occurred. Recently, a Venezuelan man who entered the U.S. unlawfully was sentenced to life in prison for his involvement in Riley’s murder.