Indiana may find relief this week as its chances of reaching the Big Ten championship game appear quite slim. Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs are facing a precarious situation regarding their position in the Southeastern Conference title game. Should Georgia suffer a defeat, it may have been better for them to skip the matchup entirely.
As the conference championship games approach, starting this week and spanning the next two weeks, the dynamics of college football are shifting significantly. The SEC initiated these championships in 1992, and with the advent of the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP), the stakes have escalated. While league titles allow top contenders a chance to enhance their playoff résumé, they inherently come with the risk of a damaging loss to their season—more so than years prior, despite the larger playoff field.
Georgia’s head coach, Kirby Smart, expressed his disinterest in conversations about playoff implications, emphasizing the importance of focusing solely on the next opponent. Still, conversations among fans and analysts reveal that the Bulldogs (9-2) are positioned sixth in the current AP Top 25 and should land similarly in the upcoming CFP rankings. With two losses already, they need to triumph over either No. 3 Texas or No. 20 Texas A&M to avoid a third loss in the SEC title game scheduled for December 7.
The impact of a third defeat looms large, though the selection committee chair asserts that reaching a conference championship should not count against a team. However, the true implications of this statement will only become clear as the postseason unfolds, with rankings finalized on December 8. Michigan’s athletic director noted that making it to a championship game holds significant weight in the eyes of the committee.
On the other hand, Indiana’s situation is more nuanced. Following a disappointing 38-15 defeat to Ohio State, a question regarding their playoff viability provoked an offended response from coach Curt Cignetti. He dismissed the notion that a solid playoff argument would be questionable given their previous performances.
Despite slipping five spots to No. 10 in the AP poll, Indiana’s prospects for a conference title could still bring an unexpected opportunity. However, they would likely enter such a matchup against No. 1 Oregon as considerable underdogs, especially following Michigan’s expected upset over No. 2 Ohio State and Maryland’s victory over No. 4 Penn State, along with Indiana’s required win against struggling Purdue.
Examining conference playoff implications offers insight, particularly since this season marks the inaugural year of the 12-team playoff format. Unlike previous seasons, Power Four conference champions are guaranteed playoff berths. A comparative look back at 2017 proves instructive, where Alabama, with one loss, secured a playoff position without playing in the SEC title game, whereas Wisconsin (12-1) and Ohio State (with two losses) missed out after competing in their respective championship games.
Other conferences are shaping up as the season progresses. In the Big 12, title contenders like Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado will likely need to clinch the conference championship to stake their claim. None currently rank higher than 14th in the AP poll. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Coast Conference could potentially send multiple teams, with Miami, SMU, and Clemson all finishing within the top 12.
The Mountain West Conference stands to offer only one playoff opportunity, primarily contingent upon Boise State’s performance. A loss could allow teams like Tulane or Army a chance for inclusion from the American Athletic Conference, as both title games are set for 8 p.m. on December 6.
Looking ahead to the rankings reveal, key aspects warrant attention. How the committee ranks Alabama and Ole Miss could hint at its perspective concerning teams with three losses. Additionally, Georgia will have to confront the risk of a third loss in their title game if they prevail against Georgia Tech this week.
Clemson’s profile continues to improve, but the committee needs to consider whether its early-season loss to Georgia still weighs heavily. Most critically, Indiana’s playoff positioning will become clearer; their recent defeat to Ohio State was their first real test of the season, but their overall schedule so far has also been less formidable.
In conclusion, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the landscape of playoff contention and the fates of various teams, setting the stage for the 12-team playoff and the ensuing drama.