SAO PAULO – Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been indicted along with 36 individuals for allegedly orchestrating a coup to maintain his right-wing leadership following his defeat in the 2022 presidential election. Having already been barred from running in the 2026 elections due to a separate case, this latest development poses a significant threat to his political future, potentially leading to imprisonment and a further decline in his influence.
The findings of the police’s investigation were delivered to Brazil’s Supreme Court on Thursday. The court will refer the case to Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet, who is tasked with deciding whether to pursue formal charges against Bolsonaro or dismiss the case entirely.
Pressure is mounting on Gonet from legal colleagues to advance the inquiries concerning the ex-president, according to local media. Politicians believe that if Bolsonaro ends up facing trial at the Supreme Court, there could be a fierce competition among his supporters and opponents to capture his voter base. “Bolsonaro is no longer the uncontested leader of the right-wing. He is emerging from mayoral elections that saw most of his candidate choices fail. Numerous investigations are not in his favor,” noted Carlos Melo, a political science expert from Insper University in Sao Paulo.
Melo pointed out that various politicians, including São Paulo governor Tarcisio de Freitas and radical mayoral candidate Pablo Marcal, as well as Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, are already positioning themselves to attract support from Bolsonaro’s voter demographic.
Bolsonaro himself commented that he was awaiting his attorney’s review of the approximately 700-page indictment but affirmed his intention to contest the charges, referring to the inquiry as an outcome of “creativity.” Since his narrow defeat to left-leaning President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, he has continually denied any attempts to cling to power and has faced a litany of legal challenges.
The police confirmed in a brief announcement that the Supreme Court had consented to disclose the names of all 37 indicted individuals in order to prevent the spread of misinformation.
Additionally, several current and former aides to Bolsonaro have also been indicted. Among them are Gen. Walter Braga Netto, Bolsonaro’s running mate in the 2022 elections; former Army commander Gen. Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira; Valdemar Costa Neto, leader of Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party; and veteran adviser Gen. Augusto Heleno.
Bolsonaro has faced other legal issues as well, including accusations related to smuggling diamond jewelry into Brazil and directing a subordinate to falsify vaccination records during the COVID-19 pandemic. He has dismissed these allegations, maintaining his innocence.
Another inquiry found that Bolsonaro misused his authority to undermine the integrity of Brazil’s electoral system, resulting in his disqualification from running until 2030. Despite this, he has expressed intentions to compete in the 2026 elections. His supporters felt encouraged by Donald Trump’s recent election victory in the U.S., even amid his mounting legal troubles.
Political analyst Creomar de Souza remarked that while the indictment represents a significant setback for Bolsonaro, it does not preclude the possibility of him seeking to run again before the imposed timeline. “The concept of legal proceedings is already complicated in today’s political landscape. Those implicated might use this situation to portray themselves as victims of persecution,” de Souza commented. “We cannot underestimate how the tensions from such indictments could potentially benefit Bolsonaro.”
Eloísa Machado de Almeida, a law professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, explained that the indictment signifies that sufficient evidence indicating a crime and its perpetrator has been gathered. She expressed confidence that there are solid legal grounds for the prosecutor-general to file charges against his former presidency.
In Congress, allies of Bolsonaro are working on a bill that would pardon those responsible for the January 8 riots at the Brazilian capital, which were an unsuccessful attempt to uphold Bolsonaro’s presidency. Speculations suggest that lawmakers are aiming to extend this legislation to include Bolsonaro himself.
Nonetheless, Machado indicated that pushing for a comprehensive amnesty bill may present “politically challenging” circumstances due to recent dangerous actions against the judiciary and revelations from ongoing investigations.
On a different note, Federal Police recently apprehended four military personnel and a police officer accused of conspiring to assassinate President Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes as a means to unseat the government following the 2022 elections. Just last week, a bomb attack occurred in Brasilia as an individual attempted to invade the Supreme Court, tossing explosives outside and resulting in his own death.