New England Patriots (3-8) will face off against the Miami Dolphins (4-6) on Sunday at 1 p.m. EST, broadcasted on CBS. The current betting odds from BetMGM favor the Dolphins by 7 points. Within the context of the season, the Patriots hold a record against the spread of 4-6-1, while the Dolphins sit at 4-6. Historically, the Dolphins have the upper hand in their matchup history, leading the series 62-53. In their most recent encounter, the Dolphins secured a 15-10 victory over the Patriots in Week 5.
Last week saw the Patriots suffer a close loss to the Rams with a score of 28-22, while the Dolphins enjoyed a triumph over the Raiders, winning by 34-19. The performance statistics reflect that the Patriots’ offense ranks low overall at 31st place, with their rush attack at 21st and passing game at 32nd. They also land in the bottom tier for scoring, positioned at 30th. Defensively, the Patriots rank 20th overall, with the same ranking against both the rush and pass, while their scoring defense sits at 18th. Conversely, the Dolphins’ offense stands at 22nd overall, with their rushing offense ranked 11th and passing offense tied for 23rd. They currently rank 27th in scoring. The Dolphins’ defense, however, is significantly stronger, ranking 9th overall in the league, with 10th place finishes in both passing and rushing defense and 15th for scoring defense. Each team has a turnover differential of minus-two.
Looking at key players, Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne is expected to be a focal point. After dealing with a season-ending knee injury last year, Bourne’s performance has been on the rise recently; he recorded five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown in last week’s game. For the Dolphins, tight end Jonnu Smith has become an essential target for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Having recently signed as a free agent, Smith demonstrated his value by putting up 101 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders, making him one of the key offensive weapons for Miami.
A notable matchup will be quarterback Drake Maye against the Dolphins’ defense, which is allowing an average of just 199 yards passing per game and has not permitted over 100 rushing yards in four consecutive games. However, Miami has had difficulty containing mobile quarterbacks, a category where Maye excels, having rushed for at least 20 yards over his last four games.
In terms of injuries, the Patriots are managing a few concerns. Defensive end Deatrich Wise is nursing a foot injury, while safety Kyle Dugger is limited due to an ankle issue that sidelined him earlier this season. Offensive lineman Cole Strange, recovering from knee surgery, has returned to practice for the first time this season. The Dolphins are also facing challenges, with cornerback Kendall Fuller still in concussion protocol following an injury two weeks ago, and cornerback Alec Ingold limited due to a calf injury that has kept him out for the last two games.
When considering series history, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel boasts a record of 4-1 against New England, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa remains undefeated against the Patriots, holding a perfect 6-0 record. The Dolphins swept the series last season and could achieve back-to-back sweeps against New England for the first time since the late 1990s.
Statistics of interest highlight that Drake Maye has been effective on the ground, averaging 9.3 yards per rush, nearing the record set by Michael Vick in 2006. On special teams, linebacker Christian Elliss is just two tackles away from achieving a milestone that would mark seven consecutive seasons with at least 10 tackles for a Patriots player. Defensive end Keion White leads the team with 15 quarterback hits this season, while tight end Hunter Henry continues to contribute significantly in the passing game.
Additionally, the Dolphins’ rushing defense has been notable since Week 8, allowing only an average of 76.5 yards per game, rating as the third-best in the NFL during that period. With a potential win, McDaniel could make history as the first Dolphins coach to win five of his initial six games against the Patriots.
For fantasy considerations, both quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Tua Tagovailoa, are solid picks. Maye has showcased his ability to rush effectively, and Tagovailoa leads the NFL in completion percentage, maximizing opportunities for his receiving corps.