BAKU, Azerbaijan — A new scientific study suggests that human-induced climate change has significantly strengthened Atlantic hurricanes over the past six years, with an increase of about 18 miles per hour (29 kilometers per hour) in wind speeds.
Published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate, the study indicates that for the majority of storms—specifically 40—warmer ocean temperatures have pushed their intensity up by one full category. This shift is critical since the damage caused by hurricanes escalates dramatically as their categories increase; for instance, a Category 5 hurricane inflicts over 400 times more damage than a minimal Category 1 storm, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notably, for three storms, including Rafael that occurred earlier this month, the influence of climate change enhanced their wind speeds enough to escalate them by two full hurricane categories. Researchers emphasize that the findings have shifted focus from the mere quantity of storms to the increasing severity of the most powerful ones.
Daniel Gifford, the lead author and climate scientist at Climate Central, noted, “The intensity of these storms contributes to significantly more catastrophic damage.” He elaborated that damage correlates closely with storm intensity, stating, “Damages do scale (up) with the intensity.”
The study monitored storms occurring between 2019 and 2023 but made additional observations for 2024 storm seasons, concluding that all named storms experienced an uptick in wind strength due to climate change. Gifford highlighted, “In 2024, we saw two Category Five storms here, and without human-caused climate change, we wouldn’t have recorded any Category Five storms.”
Among the year’s most destructive storms—Beryl, Helene, and Milton—the wind speeds rose by 18 mph (29 kph), 16 mph (26 kph), and 24 mph (39 mph), respectively, as a direct impact of climate change. Another research conducted by World Weather Attribution corroborated this finding, stating that Helene’s wind speed increased by approximately 13 mph. Climate scientist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London praised the efforts put in by Climate Central on their work.
Since 2019, a total of eight storms—including Humberto in 2019, Zeta in 2020, Sam and Larry in 2021, Earl in 2022, and Franklin, Isaac, and Rafael in 2023 and 2024—demonstrated a wind speed increase of at least 25 mph (40 kph). Humberto and Zeta recorded the most significant gains, both improving by 31 miles per hour (50 kph). Gifford stated that 85% of the storms observed during this period displayed a “fingerprint” of climate change affecting their strength.
The primary driver behind this intensification is warm ocean water; as temperatures rise in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, storms have access to more energy. However, other elements such as crosswinds and dry air can hinder hurricane development. Gifford pointed out that ocean temperatures in regions prone to hurricanes have risen by about 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 to 1.6 degrees Celsius), with localized areas experiencing increases of up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2.2 degrees Celsius) attributed to climate change.
Climate Central utilized established scientific methods to monitor ocean warming linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Their approach employed computer simulations, comparing a hypothetical scenario without human-induced warming with present-day conditions where greenhouse gas emissions are in play.
To examine the relation between warmer waters and stronger storms, researchers utilized a metric known as potential intensity, which estimates the maximum theoretical wind speed a storm can achieve based on surrounding environmental conditions. Kerry Emanuel, an MIT hurricane expert and a pioneer in potential intensity measurements, underscored the study’s validity, remarking that these findings resonate with predictions he made three decades ago.
Previous research has illustrated that climate change accelerates hurricane intensification and contributes to slower-moving storms, resulting in heavier precipitation and increased rainfall duration.